Do I ship it?

GamesEconomyEconomy + Roguelike

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Roguelike Economy game?

Economy + Roguelike

Of 120 developers who shipped a Roguelike Economy game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 183 more are announced, ×2.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.1k, ×1.7 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $210k, ×342 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 183 games are announced against 88 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.7 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 183 announced, ×2.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Economy + Roguelike
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 120
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $8.9k → $184k → $2.0k → $2.9k → $4.2k → $1.3k → $1.1k (still earning) → $628 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Economy + Roguelike: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 120
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $1.1k (exactly $1,079)
Top 25% $8.8k (exactly $8,814)
Top 5% $215k (exactly $214,693)
Developers, 2 yr 120
Released games 174
Announced 183
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 175% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Economy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Roguelike
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Economy, Roguelike; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Management, Roguelite
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 23,645 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.1k, 1 in 4 over $8.8k, 1 in 20 over $210k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 7 in 10 of the 34 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 183 games are announced against 88 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Economy with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorFair116 devs · median $22k · 125 announced
  2. + Football (Soccer)Fair21 devs · median $6.8k · 29 announced
  3. + ScienceFair39 devs · median $5.9k · 39 announced
  4. + MiningFair116 devs · median $5.0k · 173 announced
  5. + LootFair74 devs · median $4.6k · 114 announced
  6. + CollectathonFair125 devs · median $3.8k · 151 announced
  7. + God GameFair47 devs · median $2.8k · 58 announced
  8. + Auto BattlerFair59 devs · median $2.4k · 79 announced
  9. + IdlerFair441 devs · median $2.3k · 589 announced
  10. + IncrementalFair408 devs · median $2.2k · 612 announced
  11. + ArcadeFair199 devs · median $2.1k · 285 announced
  12. + Strategy RPGFair95 devs · median $2.0k · 128 announced

All 161 pairs on the Economy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Dwarf Fortress older $29.99 29,303 94% 879k $26M (exactly $26,363,909) Bay 12 Games
Scritchy Scratchy $6.99 15,245 94% 457k $3.2M (exactly $3,196,876) Lunch Money Games
(the) Gnorp Apologue older $6.99 9,613 94% 288k $2.0M (exactly $2,015,846) Myco
Renowned Explorers: International Society older $19.99 2,307 91% 69k $1.4M (exactly $1,383,508) Abbey Games
Soulash 2 · EA older $18.99 2,382 85% 71k $1.4M (exactly $1,357,025) Artur Smiarowski
As Far As The Eye older $24.99 1,640 73% 49k $1.2M (exactly $1,229,508) Unexpected
Max Gentlemen Sexy Business! older $19.99 1,492 92% 45k $895k (exactly $894,752) The Men Who Wear Many Hats
Coal LLC $14.99 1,343 92% 40k $604k (exactly $603,947) Bye Bye Ocean
Gnomes $9.99 1,757 94% 53k $527k (exactly $526,573) DYSTOPIAN
Lost But Found $6.99 2,316 71% 69k $486k (exactly $485,665) Rogue Duck Interactive
Space Warlord Baby Trading Simulator $19.99 513 91% 15k $308k (exactly $307,646) Strange Scaffold
Here Comes The Swarm · EA $19.99 358 84% 11k $215k (exactly $214,693) CableHook Games
Military Incremental Complex $9.99 692 82% 21k $207k (exactly $207,392) Space Kraken Studios
Tower Networking Inc. · EA $19.99 317 95% 9.5k $190k (exactly $190,105) Pocosia Studios
EcoGnomix $19.99 216 74% 6.5k $130k (exactly $129,535) Irox Games
ROGUE LIGHT DECK BUILDER $3.99 888 94% 27k $106k (exactly $106,294) Gil Lawson

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.