Do I ship it?

GamesEconomyEconomy + Puzzle

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Puzzle Economy game?

Economy + Puzzle

Of 66 developers who shipped a Puzzle Economy game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 113 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $450, ×0.7 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180; 1 in 20 cleared $180k, ×297 the market median. Revenue is down 10% on the market; 113 games are announced against 39 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 10% on the market, 113 announced, ×2.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Economy + Puzzle
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 66
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $7.3k → $1.6k → $358 → $2.7k → $360 → $1.3k → $898 (still earning) → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Economy + Puzzle: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 66
Bottom 30% $179 (exactly $179)
Median $449 (exactly $449)
Top 25% $4.3k (exactly $4,341)
Top 5% $187k (exactly $186,507)
Developers, 2 yr 66
Released games 196
Announced 113
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 10% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Economy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Puzzle
effort 2 / 10 · high · discrete rules, levels are data

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Economy, Puzzle; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Management, Automation
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 14,418 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $450, 1 in 4 over $4.3k, 1 in 20 over $180k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 8 in 10 of the 30 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 113 games are announced against 39 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Economy with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorFair116 devs · median $22k · 125 announced
  2. + Football (Soccer)Fair21 devs · median $6.8k · 29 announced
  3. + ScienceFair39 devs · median $5.9k · 39 announced
  4. + MiningFair116 devs · median $5.0k · 173 announced
  5. + LootFair74 devs · median $4.6k · 114 announced
  6. + CollectathonFair125 devs · median $3.8k · 151 announced
  7. + God GameFair47 devs · median $2.8k · 58 announced
  8. + Auto BattlerFair59 devs · median $2.4k · 79 announced
  9. + IdlerFair441 devs · median $2.3k · 589 announced
  10. + IncrementalFair408 devs · median $2.2k · 612 announced
  11. + ArcadeFair199 devs · median $2.1k · 285 announced
  12. + Strategy RPGFair95 devs · median $2.0k · 128 announced

All 161 pairs on the Economy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
The Farmer Was Replaced $9.99 9,116 95% 273k $2.7M (exactly $2,732,065) Timon Herzog
Rail Route older $24.99 2,400 88% 72k $1.8M (exactly $1,799,280) Bitrich.info
Sticky Business older $9.99 6,001 95% 180k $1.8M (exactly $1,798,500) Spellgarden Games
Parcel Simulator $17.99 2,804 93% 84k $1.5M (exactly $1,513,319) Dansan Digital
House Builder older $19.99 2,194 79% 66k $1.3M (exactly $1,315,742) FreeMind S.A.
Slipways older $16.99 2,233 93% 67k $1.1M (exactly $1,138,160) Beetlewing
RAILGRADE older $29.99 1,205 84% 36k $1.1M (exactly $1,084,138) Minakata Dynamics
Big Pharma older $24.99 1,443 78% 43k $1.1M (exactly $1,081,817) Twice Circled
Urbek City Builder older $18.99 1,830 89% 55k $1.0M (exactly $1,042,551) Fridus
No Umbrellas Allowed older $19.99 1,394 80% 42k $836k (exactly $835,982) Hoochoo Game Studios
Kaizen: A Factory Story $19.99 694 91% 21k $416k (exactly $416,192) Coincidence
Craftlings $19.99 311 86% 9.3k $187k (exactly $186,507) ARIANO Games GmbH
Teller's Duty $11.99 388 72% 12k $140k (exactly $139,564) Hiscory
Beff Jezos Simulator $9.99 387 68% 12k $116k (exactly $115,984) tiplay studio
Super Loco World - Cozy Train Automation $9.99 329 76% 9.9k $99k (exactly $98,601) Andrii Bychkovskyi
Check Inn $14.99 197 84% 5.9k $89k (exactly $88,591) KishMish Games
Airport Baggage Simulator $17.99 100 92% 3.0k $54k (exactly $53,970) Three River Games (3RG)
Alchemist: The Potion Monger $13.99 92 80% 2.8k $39k (exactly $38,612) Art Games Studio S.A.

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.