Do I ship it?

GamesEconomyEconomy + Programming

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Programming Economy game?

Economy + Programming

Only 19 developers shipped a Programming Economy game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, The Farmer Was Replaced, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 27 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $10k, ×16 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.6k; 1 in 20 cleared $2.7M, ×4350 the market median. Revenue is down 95% on the market; 27 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 15.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 95% on the market, 27 announced, ×1.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Economy + Programming
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 19
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $36k → $190k → $7.0k (still earning) → $899 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Economy + Programming: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 19
Bottom 30% $2.5k (exactly $2,545)
Median $10k (exactly $9,960)
Top 25% $187k (exactly $186,507)
Top 5% $2.7M (exactly $2,732,065)
Developers, 2 yr 19
Released games 39
Announced 27
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 95% on the market, supply 435% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 5%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Economy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Programming
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Economy, Programming; all of the top 25% also carry Automation, Logic, Simulation
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Text-Based
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 11,835 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $2.6k, median $10k, 1 in 4 over $180k, 1 in 20 over $2.7M.

3 in 10 developers made under $2.6k. 27 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Economy with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorFair116 devs · median $22k · 125 announced
  2. + Football (Soccer)Fair21 devs · median $6.8k · 29 announced
  3. + ScienceFair39 devs · median $5.9k · 39 announced
  4. + MiningFair116 devs · median $5.0k · 173 announced
  5. + LootFair74 devs · median $4.6k · 114 announced
  6. + CollectathonFair125 devs · median $3.8k · 151 announced
  7. + God GameFair47 devs · median $2.8k · 58 announced
  8. + Auto BattlerFair59 devs · median $2.4k · 79 announced
  9. + IdlerFair441 devs · median $2.3k · 589 announced
  10. + IncrementalFair408 devs · median $2.2k · 612 announced
  11. + ArcadeFair199 devs · median $2.1k · 285 announced
  12. + Strategy RPGFair95 devs · median $2.0k · 128 announced

All 161 pairs on the Economy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Mad Games Tycoon 2 older $24.99 7,355 93% 221k $5.5M (exactly $5,514,044) Eggcode
Software Inc. · EA older $22.99 7,576 94% 227k $5.2M (exactly $5,225,167) Coredumping
The Farmer Was Replaced $9.99 9,116 95% 273k $2.7M (exactly $2,732,065) Timon Herzog
Mad Games Tycoon older $14.99 3,700 91% 111k $1.7M (exactly $1,663,890) Eggcode
Screeps: World older $19.99 1,934 86% 58k $1.2M (exactly $1,159,820) Screeps, LLC
City Game Studio: Your Game Dev Adventure Begins older $19.99 1,779 91% 53k $1.1M (exactly $1,066,866) Binogure Studio 🐺
Kaizen: A Factory Story $19.99 694 91% 21k $416k (exactly $416,192) Coincidence
Data Center $8.99 916 76% 27k $247k (exactly $247,045) Waseku
Crypto Mining Simulator older $4.99 1,419 65% 43k $212k (exactly $212,424) Satosha Nakamoti
Tower Networking Inc. · EA $19.99 317 95% 9.5k $190k (exactly $190,105) Pocosia Studios
Craftlings $19.99 311 86% 9.3k $187k (exactly $186,507) ARIANO Games GmbH
MegaFactory Titan $19.99 150 76% 4.5k $90k (exactly $89,955) Q Switched Productions, LLC
Adventure Land - The Code MMORPG $14.99 144 84% 4.3k $65k (exactly $64,757) Wizard
Screeps: Arena $19.99 105 82% 3.2k $63k (exactly $62,968) Screeps, LLC
Web Host Simulator · EA $24.99 42 26% 1.3k $31k (exactly $31,487) Chibum
SysAdmin Odyssey - Back to the office · EA $8.30 40 75% 1.2k $10k (exactly $9,960) Molodoy-GameDev

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.