Do I ship it?

GamesEconomyEconomy + Post-apocalyptic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Post-apocalyptic Economy game?

Economy + Post-apocalyptic

Of 35 developers who shipped a Post-apocalyptic Economy game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 78 more are announced, ×3.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $8.7k, ×14 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.5k; 1 in 20 cleared $1.1M, ×1808 the market median. Revenue is down 85% on the market; 78 games are announced against 21 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 13.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 85% on the market, 78 announced, ×3.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Economy + Post-apocalyptic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 35
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $373k → $497k → $41k → $93k → $12k → $7.2k (still earning) → $6.6k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Economy + Post-apocalyptic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 35
Bottom 30% $1.5k (exactly $1,498)
Median $8.7k (exactly $8,700)
Top 25% $295k (exactly $294,632)
Top 5% $1.1M (exactly $1,135,421)
Developers, 2 yr 35
Released games 85
Announced 78
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $11.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 85% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Economy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Post-apocalyptic
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Economy; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Survival, Base Building, Building
Price point
$11.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $11.99.

The top 10 games average 79% positive over 14,560 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.5k, median $8.7k, 1 in 4 over $290k, 1 in 20 over $1.1M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.5k. 4 in 10 of the 14 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 78 games are announced against 21 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Economy with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorFair116 devs · median $22k · 125 announced
  2. + Football (Soccer)Fair21 devs · median $6.8k · 29 announced
  3. + ScienceFair39 devs · median $5.9k · 39 announced
  4. + MiningFair116 devs · median $5.0k · 173 announced
  5. + LootFair74 devs · median $4.6k · 114 announced
  6. + CollectathonFair125 devs · median $3.8k · 151 announced
  7. + God GameFair47 devs · median $2.8k · 58 announced
  8. + Auto BattlerFair59 devs · median $2.4k · 79 announced
  9. + IdlerFair441 devs · median $2.3k · 589 announced
  10. + IncrementalFair408 devs · median $2.2k · 612 announced
  11. + ArcadeFair199 devs · median $2.1k · 285 announced
  12. + Strategy RPGFair95 devs · median $2.0k · 128 announced

All 161 pairs on the Economy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Frostpunk older $29.99 114,376 92% 3.4M $103M (exactly $102,904,087) 11 bit studios
Last Oasis · EA older $29.99 20,443 63% 613k $18M (exactly $18,392,567) Donkey Crew
IXION older $34.99 15,281 77% 458k $16M (exactly $16,040,466) Bulwark Studios
Endzone - A World Apart older $24.99 8,311 76% 249k $6.2M (exactly $6,230,757) Gentlymad Studios
Flotsam $24.99 4,308 80% 129k $3.2M (exactly $3,229,708) Pajama Llama Games
Rusty's Retirement older $6.99 13,902 96% 417k $2.9M (exactly $2,915,249) Mister Morris Games
Cliff Empire older $17.99 4,194 87% 126k $2.3M (exactly $2,263,502) Lion's Shade
Judgment: Apocalypse Survival Simulation older $19.99 2,106 80% 63k $1.3M (exactly $1,262,968) Suncrash
ALL WILL FALL $29.99 1,262 76% 38k $1.1M (exactly $1,135,421) All Parts Connected
The Walking Trade $11.99 2,733 86% 82k $983k (exactly $983,060) Microwave Games
Endzone 2 $29.99 894 65% 27k $804k (exactly $804,332) Gentlymad Studios
The Spotter: Dig or Die $12.99 1,792 84% 54k $698k (exactly $698,342) Puppyroar Games
Surviving the Abyss $19.99 1,044 64% 31k $626k (exactly $626,087) Rocket Flair Studios
Survive the Fall $24.99 590 65% 18k $442k (exactly $442,323) Angry Bulls Studio
Dustland Delivery $7.99 1,264 88% 38k $303k (exactly $302,981) Neutron Star Studio
Zombie Cure Lab $24.99 393 65% 12k $295k (exactly $294,632) Thera Bytes GmbH
STARIO: Haven Tower · EA $13.99 280 93% 8.4k $118k (exactly $117,516) Stargate Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.