Do I ship it?

GamesEconomyEconomy + Physics

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Physics Economy game?

Economy + Physics

Of 112 developers who shipped a Physics Economy game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 254 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.3k, ×6.9 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $900; 1 in 20 cleared $1.5M, ×2477 the market median. Revenue is down 85% on the market; 254 games are announced against 86 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 6.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 85% on the market, 254 announced, ×3.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Economy + Physics
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 112
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.3M → $173k → $155k → $17k → $16k → $3.5k (still earning) → $1.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Economy + Physics: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 112
Bottom 30% $898 (exactly $898)
Median $4.3k (exactly $4,315)
Top 25% $69k (exactly $68,966)
Top 5% $1.6M (exactly $1,555,622)
Developers, 2 yr 112
Released games 217
Announced 254
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 85% on the market, supply 185% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Economy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Physics
effort 5 / 10 · low · emergent simulation bugs need hands-on tuning

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Economy, Physics; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Management, Sandbox
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, First-Person, Relaxing
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 91,106 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $900, median $4.3k, 1 in 4 over $68k, 1 in 20 over $1.5M.

3 in 10 developers made under $900. 5 in 10 of the 36 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 254 games are announced against 86 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Economy with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorFair116 devs · median $22k · 125 announced
  2. + Football (Soccer)Fair21 devs · median $6.8k · 29 announced
  3. + ScienceFair39 devs · median $5.9k · 39 announced
  4. + MiningFair116 devs · median $5.0k · 173 announced
  5. + LootFair74 devs · median $4.6k · 114 announced
  6. + CollectathonFair125 devs · median $3.8k · 151 announced
  7. + God GameFair47 devs · median $2.8k · 58 announced
  8. + Auto BattlerFair59 devs · median $2.4k · 79 announced
  9. + IdlerFair441 devs · median $2.3k · 589 announced
  10. + IncrementalFair408 devs · median $2.2k · 612 announced
  11. + ArcadeFair199 devs · median $2.1k · 285 announced
  12. + Strategy RPGFair95 devs · median $2.0k · 128 announced

All 161 pairs on the Economy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Farming Simulator 25 $29.99 39,681 87% 1.2M $36M (exactly $35,700,996) GIANTS Software
Automation - The Car Company Tycoon Game · EA older $29.99 16,815 93% 504k $15M (exactly $15,128,456) Camshaft Software Ltd
Gas Station Simulator older $19.99 23,839 88% 715k $14M (exactly $14,296,248) DRAGO entertainment
Derail Valley · EA older $39.99 9,442 96% 283k $11M (exactly $11,327,567) Altfuture
Cooking Simulator older $19.99 17,837 84% 535k $11M (exactly $10,696,849) Big Cheese Studio
Farming Simulator 15 older $12.99 13,306 92% 399k $5.2M (exactly $5,185,348) GIANTS Software
Waterpark Simulator $12.99 13,280 96% 398k $5.2M (exactly $5,175,216) CayPlay
Railroads Online $29.99 5,410 75% 162k $4.9M (exactly $4,867,377) Stefan Kelnberger
Railroader · EA older $29.99 3,343 96% 100k $3.0M (exactly $3,007,697) Giraffe Lab LLC
A Game About Digging A Hole™ $4.99 18,785 89% 564k $2.8M (exactly $2,812,114) DoubleBee
Starminer · EA $29.99 1,818 72% 55k $1.6M (exactly $1,635,655) CoolAndGoodGames
Recycling Center Simulator $19.99 2,594 84% 78k $1.6M (exactly $1,555,622) Balas Games
Old Market Simulator $9.99 4,333 87% 130k $1.3M (exactly $1,298,600) Alcedo Games
ALL WILL FALL $29.99 1,262 76% 38k $1.1M (exactly $1,135,421) All Parts Connected
Docked $29.99 1,210 72% 36k $1.1M (exactly $1,088,637) Saber Interactive
The Walking Trade $11.99 2,733 86% 82k $983k (exactly $983,060) Microwave Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.