Do I ship it?

GamesEconomyEconomy + Outbreak Sim

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Outbreak Sim Economy game?

Economy + Outbreak Sim

Only 14 developers shipped an Outbreak Sim Economy game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Calyx, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 17 more are announced, ×2.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.4k, ×3.8 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $390; 1 in 20 cleared $350k, ×562 the market median. Revenue is up 5900% on the market; 17 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 5900% on the market, 17 announced, ×2.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Economy + Outbreak Sim
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 14
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $898 → $122k → $2.4k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Economy + Outbreak Sim: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 14
Bottom 30% $390 (exactly $390)
Median $2.4k (exactly $2,398)
Top 25% $122k (exactly $122,016)
Top 5% $353k (exactly $353,109)
Developers, 2 yr 14
Released games 27
Announced 17
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 5900% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Economy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Outbreak Sim
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Economy, Outbreak Sim; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Management, Resource Management, Simulation
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Top-Down
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 2,452 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $390, median $2.4k, 1 in 4 over $120k, 1 in 20 over $350k.

3 in 10 developers made under $390. 8 in 10 of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 17 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Economy with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorFair116 devs · median $22k · 125 announced
  2. + Football (Soccer)Fair21 devs · median $6.8k · 29 announced
  3. + ScienceFair39 devs · median $5.9k · 39 announced
  4. + MiningFair116 devs · median $5.0k · 173 announced
  5. + LootFair74 devs · median $4.6k · 114 announced
  6. + CollectathonFair125 devs · median $3.8k · 151 announced
  7. + God GameFair47 devs · median $2.8k · 58 announced
  8. + Auto BattlerFair59 devs · median $2.4k · 79 announced
  9. + IdlerFair441 devs · median $2.3k · 589 announced
  10. + IncrementalFair408 devs · median $2.2k · 612 announced
  11. + ArcadeFair199 devs · median $2.1k · 285 announced
  12. + Strategy RPGFair95 devs · median $2.0k · 128 announced

All 161 pairs on the Economy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Shadows of Forbidden Gods older $19.99 1,046 91% 31k $627k (exactly $627,286) Bobby Two Hands
Galacticare older $29.99 600 85% 18k $540k (exactly $539,820) Brightrock Games
Calyx · EA $24.99 471 88% 14k $353k (exactly $353,109) Studio 568
Zombie Cure Lab $24.99 393 65% 12k $295k (exactly $294,632) Thera Bytes GmbH
CURE - A Hospital Simulator · EA $9.99 830 86% 25k $249k (exactly $248,751) Sentinel Games
Mad Tower Tycoon older $14.99 413 77% 12k $186k (exactly $185,726) Eggcode
Execute $5.99 679 91% 20k $122k (exactly $122,016) Payne Robinson
Dead 4 Now: Bio-Weapon Simulator $14.99 29 75% 870 $13k (exactly $13,041) d'Evo
Project Apocalypse older $5.99 34 70% 1.0k $6.1k (exactly $6,110) Sargonius Games
Biletide $5.99 24 100% 720 $4.3k (exactly $4,313) Formic Games
Apocalypse Factory · EA $9.99 8 50% 240 $2.4k (exactly $2,398) Mind Leak
英雄荣光医院 $6.99 11 100% 330 $2.3k (exactly $2,307) Areas R
GlobalQuarantine $4.99 6 33% 180 $898 (exactly $898) Contagio Games
World War Forex · EA $12.99 1 100% 30 $390 (exactly $390) Leobot Electronics, Leon Botha, INESSOFT

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.