Do I ship it?

GamesEconomyEconomy + Naval

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Naval Economy game?

Economy + Naval

Only 12 developers shipped a Naval Economy game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, KAISERPUNK, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 40 more are announced, ×4.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.3k, ×3.7 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $840; 1 in 20 cleared $790k, ×1266 the market median. Revenue is down 40% on the market; 40 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 40% on the market, 40 announced, ×4.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Economy + Naval
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 12
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $36k → $99k → $3.2k → $1.1k (still earning) → $90 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Economy + Naval: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 12
Bottom 30% $838 (exactly $838)
Median $2.3k (exactly $2,336)
Top 25% $5.3k (exactly $5,273)
Top 5% $795k (exactly $795,335)
Developers, 2 yr 12
Released games 51
Announced 40
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 40% on the market, supply 125% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Economy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Naval
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Economy
Price point
$5.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 69% positive over 994 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $840, median $2.3k, 1 in 4 over $5.2k, 1 in 20 over $790k.

3 in 10 developers made under $840. 40 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Economy with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorFair116 devs · median $22k · 125 announced
  2. + Football (Soccer)Fair21 devs · median $6.8k · 29 announced
  3. + ScienceFair39 devs · median $5.9k · 39 announced
  4. + MiningFair116 devs · median $5.0k · 173 announced
  5. + LootFair74 devs · median $4.6k · 114 announced
  6. + CollectathonFair125 devs · median $3.8k · 151 announced
  7. + God GameFair47 devs · median $2.8k · 58 announced
  8. + Auto BattlerFair59 devs · median $2.4k · 79 announced
  9. + IdlerFair441 devs · median $2.3k · 589 announced
  10. + IncrementalFair408 devs · median $2.2k · 612 announced
  11. + ArcadeFair199 devs · median $2.1k · 285 announced
  12. + Strategy RPGFair95 devs · median $2.0k · 128 announced

All 161 pairs on the Economy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Transport Fever 2 older $39.99 26,714 89% 801k $32M (exactly $32,048,786) Urban Games
Ultimate Admiral: Dreadnoughts older $34.99 6,664 62% 200k $7.0M (exactly $6,995,201) Game-Labs
Ships At Sea · EA older $24.99 2,479 69% 74k $1.9M (exactly $1,858,506) Misc Games
Sid Meier's Pirates! older $9.99 6,198 94% 186k $1.9M (exactly $1,857,541) Firaxis Games
Port Royale 4 older $39.99 1,405 56% 42k $1.7M (exactly $1,685,578) Gaming Minds
Windward older $9.99 2,668 79% 80k $800k (exactly $799,600) Tasharen Entertainment Inc.
KAISERPUNK $29.99 884 71% 27k $795k (exactly $795,335) Overseer Games
Blood and Gold: Caribbean! older $19.99 1,188 59% 36k $712k (exactly $712,444) Snowbird Games
Aircraft Carrier Survival older $19.99 1,176 59% 35k $705k (exactly $705,247) Gambit Games Studio
Port Royale 3 older $14.99 1,204 72% 36k $541k (exactly $541,439) Gaming Minds Studios
Storm Seas · EA $14.99 19 52% 570 $8.5k (exactly $8,544) Dclares Dev
Dockside Dreams – Fish & Cook Simulator $7.99 22 59% 660 $5.3k (exactly $5,273) C51 Games
Maximilian Spee · EA $39.99 3 33% 90 $3.6k (exactly $3,599) EUGENE LOPATIN
Sea Town - Fish Market Simulator $3.99 27 48% 810 $3.2k (exactly $3,232) Alice Games
Port Trader $5.99 13 46% 390 $2.3k (exactly $2,336) Urban Isotope
Freight Manager · EA $11.99 5 60% 150 $1.8k (exactly $1,798) Drogos
Crisis Commander: Strait Of Hormuz $3.99 9 77% 270 $1.1k (exactly $1,077) Kra Kra Games
War and Politics · EA $3.99 7 42% 210 $838 (exactly $838) JIYUTORISEI
Port Shipping Tycoon $4.99 5 0% 150 $748 (exactly $748) Urban Isotope

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.