Do I ship it?

GamesEconomyEconomy + Mystery

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Mystery Economy game?

Economy + Mystery

Of 29 developers who shipped a Mystery Economy game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 63 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.9k, ×3.1 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240; 1 in 20 cleared $690k, ×1112 the market median. Revenue is down 85% on the market; 63 games are announced against 23 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.1 times the market baseline, revenue down 85% on the market, 63 announced, ×2.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Economy + Mystery
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 29
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $15k → $3.8k → $2.2k → $240 (still earning) → $4.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Economy + Mystery: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 29
Bottom 30% $240 (exactly $240)
Median $1.9k (exactly $1,946)
Top 25% $8.8k (exactly $8,807)
Top 5% $698k (exactly $698,342)
Developers, 2 yr 29
Released games 46
Announced 63
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.00

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 85% on the market, supply 285% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Economy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Mystery
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Economy; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Management, Mining
Price point
$5.00 typical · top 25% priced $12.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $12.99 or above; the middle game at $5.00.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 24,053 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $240, median $1.9k, 1 in 4 over $8.8k, 1 in 20 over $690k.

3 in 10 developers made under $240. 7 in 10 of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 63 games are announced against 23 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Economy with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorFair116 devs · median $22k · 125 announced
  2. + Football (Soccer)Fair21 devs · median $6.8k · 29 announced
  3. + ScienceFair39 devs · median $5.9k · 39 announced
  4. + MiningFair116 devs · median $5.0k · 173 announced
  5. + LootFair74 devs · median $4.6k · 114 announced
  6. + CollectathonFair125 devs · median $3.8k · 151 announced
  7. + God GameFair47 devs · median $2.8k · 58 announced
  8. + Auto BattlerFair59 devs · median $2.4k · 79 announced
  9. + IdlerFair441 devs · median $2.3k · 589 announced
  10. + IncrementalFair408 devs · median $2.2k · 612 announced
  11. + ArcadeFair199 devs · median $2.1k · 285 announced
  12. + Strategy RPGFair95 devs · median $2.0k · 128 announced

All 161 pairs on the Economy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
A Game About Digging A Hole™ $4.99 18,785 89% 564k $2.8M (exactly $2,812,114) DoubleBee
The Spotter: Dig or Die $12.99 1,792 84% 54k $698k (exactly $698,342) Puppyroar Games
Surviving the Abyss $19.99 1,044 64% 31k $626k (exactly $626,087) Rocket Flair Studios
Meltopia $6.99 1,679 85% 50k $352k (exactly $352,086) Garden of Dreams
Magical Delicacy older $24.99 240 77% 7.2k $180k (exactly $179,928) Skaule
The Succession of Changing Kings $9.99 487 86% 15k $146k (exactly $145,954) KwaKwaGames
Madorica Real Estate older $16.99 113 92% 3.4k $58k (exactly $57,596) GIFT TEN INDUSTRY K.K.
The Advisor - Episode 1: Royal Pain older $2.99 597 96% 18k $54k (exactly $53,551) Randumb Studios
CorpoNation: The Sorting Process older $12.99 117 71% 3.5k $46k (exactly $45,595) Canteen
Game Tycoon 2 older $7.99 127 37% 3.8k $30k (exactly $30,442) Sunlight Games
Grove Fisher $4.99 98 67% 2.9k $15k (exactly $14,671) EVIL CORP GAMES
The HELL · EA $9.99 30 73% 900 $9.0k (exactly $8,991) METROPOLICE
Orebits $6.99 42 66% 1.3k $8.8k (exactly $8,807) Upgraded Studio
Terraforming Titans $5.00 58 94% 1.7k $8.7k (exactly $8,700) terraforming.titans
Kibble Cats $4.99 38 89% 1.1k $5.7k (exactly $5,689) Vozmog

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.