Do I ship it?

GamesEconomyEconomy + Hex Grid

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Hex Grid Economy game?

Economy + Hex Grid

Of 24 developers who shipped a Hex Grid Economy game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 55 more are announced, ×6.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.9k, ×6.2 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.1k; 1 in 20 cleared $1.4M, ×2327 the market median. Revenue is down 55% on the market; 55 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 6.2 times the market baseline, revenue down 55% on the market, 55 announced, ×6.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Economy + Hex Grid
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 24
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $18k → $41k → $17k → $8.6k → $2.3k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Economy + Hex Grid: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 24
Bottom 30% $2.1k (exactly $2,096)
Median $3.9k (exactly $3,897)
Top 25% $61k (exactly $60,570)
Top 5% $1.5M (exactly $1,461,469)
Developers, 2 yr 24
Released games 59
Announced 55
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $10.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 55% on the market, supply 40% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Economy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Hex Grid
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Economy, Hex Grid; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Building, Simulation
Price point
$10.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $10.99.

The top 10 games average 50% positive over 48,660 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $2.1k, median $3.9k, 1 in 4 over $60k, 1 in 20 over $1.4M.

3 in 10 developers made under $2.1k. 6 in 10 of the 16 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 55 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year, ×6.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Economy with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorFair116 devs · median $22k · 125 announced
  2. + Football (Soccer)Fair21 devs · median $6.8k · 29 announced
  3. + ScienceFair39 devs · median $5.9k · 39 announced
  4. + MiningFair116 devs · median $5.0k · 173 announced
  5. + LootFair74 devs · median $4.6k · 114 announced
  6. + CollectathonFair125 devs · median $3.8k · 151 announced
  7. + God GameFair47 devs · median $2.8k · 58 announced
  8. + Auto BattlerFair59 devs · median $2.4k · 79 announced
  9. + IdlerFair441 devs · median $2.3k · 589 announced
  10. + IncrementalFair408 devs · median $2.2k · 612 announced
  11. + ArcadeFair199 devs · median $2.1k · 285 announced
  12. + Strategy RPGFair95 devs · median $2.0k · 128 announced

All 161 pairs on the Economy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Sid Meier's Civilization® V older $29.99 128,186 95% 3.8M $115M (exactly $115,328,944) Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linu… (Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linux))
Sid Meier's Civilization VII $69.99 44,789 48% 1.3M $94M (exactly $94,043,463) Firaxis Games
Age of Wonders: Planetfall older $29.99 4,758 80% 143k $4.3M (exactly $4,280,773) Triumph Studios
Millennia older $39.99 2,976 67% 89k $3.6M (exactly $3,570,307) C Prompt Games
Ascension · EA $19.99 2,437 60% 73k $1.5M (exactly $1,461,469) Element Game 微元游戏
As Far As The Eye older $24.99 1,640 73% 49k $1.2M (exactly $1,229,508) Unexpected
Before We Leave older $19.99 1,278 78% 38k $766k (exactly $766,417) Balancing Monkey Games
Ozymandias: Bronze Age Empire Sim older $14.99 1,306 89% 39k $587k (exactly $587,308) The Secret Games Company
Kaizen: A Factory Story $19.99 694 91% 21k $416k (exactly $416,192) Coincidence
Revival: Recolonization older $29.99 335 69% 10k $301k (exactly $301,400) HeroCraft PC
EcoGnomix $19.99 216 74% 6.5k $130k (exactly $129,535) Irox Games
High Seas, High Profits! $14.99 165 86% 5.0k $74k (exactly $74,200) lexy.zip
Imperial Ambitions $19.99 101 81% 3.0k $61k (exactly $60,570) aoiti
Folk Emerging $24.99 73 86% 2.2k $55k (exactly $54,728) Curious Dynamics
Empire Builder $19.99 42 95% 1.3k $25k (exactly $25,187) Zombie Possum Games Inc
Skyline Urban Story $6.99 106 90% 3.2k $22k (exactly $22,228) PandaUpStudio
Great Powers $14.99 37 67% 1.1k $17k (exactly $16,639) Flame-Dragons, Flame-Dragons

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.