Do I ship it?

GamesEconomyEconomy + Futuristic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Futuristic Economy game?

Economy + Futuristic

Of 88 developers who shipped a Futuristic Economy game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 180 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.6k, ×2.6 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $420; 1 in 20 cleared $52k, ×83 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 180 games are announced against 54 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.6 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 180 announced, ×3.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Economy + Futuristic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 88
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $17k → $1.6k → $2.2k → $2.2k → $2.4k → $4.0k → $3.8k (still earning) → $360 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Economy + Futuristic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 88
Bottom 30% $419 (exactly $419)
Median $1.6k (exactly $1,648)
Top 25% $8.7k (exactly $8,700)
Top 5% $52k (exactly $52,148)
Developers, 2 yr 88
Released games 168
Announced 180
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 60% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Economy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Futuristic
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Economy; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Simulation, Building
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 70% positive over 16,606 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $420, median $1.6k, 1 in 4 over $8.7k, 1 in 20 over $52k.

3 in 10 developers made under $420. 9 in 10 of the 37 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 180 games are announced against 54 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Economy with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorFair116 devs · median $22k · 125 announced
  2. + Football (Soccer)Fair21 devs · median $6.8k · 29 announced
  3. + ScienceFair39 devs · median $5.9k · 39 announced
  4. + MiningFair116 devs · median $5.0k · 173 announced
  5. + LootFair74 devs · median $4.6k · 114 announced
  6. + CollectathonFair125 devs · median $3.8k · 151 announced
  7. + God GameFair47 devs · median $2.8k · 58 announced
  8. + Auto BattlerFair59 devs · median $2.4k · 79 announced
  9. + IdlerFair441 devs · median $2.3k · 589 announced
  10. + IncrementalFair408 devs · median $2.2k · 612 announced
  11. + ArcadeFair199 devs · median $2.1k · 285 announced
  12. + Strategy RPGFair95 devs · median $2.0k · 128 announced

All 161 pairs on the Economy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
MechWarrior 5: Mercenaries older $29.99 13,347 84% 400k $12M (exactly $12,008,296) Piranha Games Inc.
The Bazaar $19.99 14,931 70% 448k $9.0M (exactly $8,954,121) Tempo
Anno 2205™ older $39.99 6,115 70% 183k $7.3M (exactly $7,336,166) Blue Byte
Anno 2070™ older $19.99 11,571 59% 347k $6.9M (exactly $6,939,129) Blue Byte, Related Designs
Age of Wonders: Planetfall older $29.99 4,758 80% 143k $4.3M (exactly $4,280,773) Triumph Studios
Dune: Imperium older $22.99 3,806 94% 114k $2.6M (exactly $2,624,998) Dire Wolf
Cliff Empire older $17.99 4,194 87% 126k $2.3M (exactly $2,263,502) Lion's Shade
Slipways older $16.99 2,233 93% 67k $1.1M (exactly $1,138,160) Beetlewing
Solargene $34.99 777 77% 23k $816k (exactly $815,617) Alexander Semenov
Aquatico older $24.99 786 67% 24k $589k (exactly $589,264) Digital Reef Games
MegaFactory Titan $19.99 150 76% 4.5k $90k (exactly $89,955) Q Switched Productions, LLC
Space for Sale $19.99 140 50% 4.2k $84k (exactly $83,958) Mirage Game Studios
Emperor of the Fading Suns Enhanced $9.99 174 95% 5.2k $52k (exactly $52,148) Holistic Design, Inc.
Alien Market Simulator $12.99 124 83% 3.7k $48k (exactly $48,323) Silly Sloth Studios, Kheddo Entertainme… (Silly Sloth Studios, Kheddo Entertainment)
Solar Wave · EA $17.99 80 75% 2.4k $43k (exactly $43,176) SavGus Studio
Oasis Mission: Colony Sim $14.99 91 56% 2.7k $41k (exactly $40,923) Lunar pug studio
Possible One: Lunar Industries · EA $24.99 53 64% 1.6k $40k (exactly $39,734) Upstairs Games
Lunar Ascendant $14.99 86 44% 2.6k $39k (exactly $38,674) Darts Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.