Do I ship it?

GamesEconomyEconomy + Farming

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Farming Economy game?

Economy + Farming

Of 33 developers who shipped a Farming Economy game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 32 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $35k, ×56 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $4.7k; 1 in 20 cleared $25M, ×40858 the market median. Revenue is down 50% on the market; 32 games are announced against 19 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 56.2 times the market baseline, revenue down 50% on the market, 32 announced, ×1.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Economy + Farming
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 33
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $800k → $1.3M → $20k → $300k → $4.7k (still earning) → $26k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Economy + Farming: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 33
Bottom 30% $4.7k (exactly $4,676)
Median $35k (exactly $35,278)
Top 25% $162k (exactly $161,654)
Top 5% $26M (exactly $25,658,867)
Developers, 2 yr 33
Released games 54
Announced 32
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 50% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 2%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Economy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Farming
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Economy; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Management, Simulation, Building
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 84,643 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $4.7k, median $35k, 1 in 4 over $160k, 1 in 20 over $25M.

3 in 10 developers made under $4.7k. 5 in 10 of the 15 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 32 games are announced against 19 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Economy with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorFair116 devs · median $22k · 125 announced
  2. + Football (Soccer)Fair21 devs · median $6.8k · 29 announced
  3. + ScienceFair39 devs · median $5.9k · 39 announced
  4. + MiningFair116 devs · median $5.0k · 173 announced
  5. + LootFair74 devs · median $4.6k · 114 announced
  6. + CollectathonFair125 devs · median $3.8k · 151 announced
  7. + God GameFair47 devs · median $2.8k · 58 announced
  8. + Auto BattlerFair59 devs · median $2.4k · 79 announced
  9. + IdlerFair441 devs · median $2.3k · 589 announced
  10. + IncrementalFair408 devs · median $2.2k · 612 announced
  11. + ArcadeFair199 devs · median $2.1k · 285 announced
  12. + Strategy RPGFair95 devs · median $2.0k · 128 announced

All 161 pairs on the Economy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Farming Simulator 25 $29.99 39,681 87% 1.2M $36M (exactly $35,700,996) GIANTS Software
Ranch Simulator: Build, Hunt, Farm older $24.99 40,862 79% 1.2M $31M (exactly $30,634,241) Toxic Dog
Farthest Frontier $34.99 24,444 86% 733k $26M (exactly $25,658,867) Crate Entertainment
Rusty's Retirement older $6.99 13,902 96% 417k $2.9M (exactly $2,915,249) Mister Morris Games
Rise of Industry older $29.99 3,122 74% 94k $2.8M (exactly $2,808,863) Dapper Penguin Studios
The Farmer Was Replaced $9.99 9,116 95% 273k $2.7M (exactly $2,732,065) Timon Herzog
Go-Go Town! $27.99 2,476 93% 74k $2.1M (exactly $2,079,097) Prideful Sloth
Mirthwood $24.99 2,242 69% 67k $1.7M (exactly $1,680,827) Bad Ridge Games
Farm Manager 2018 older $19.99 2,524 70% 76k $1.5M (exactly $1,513,643) Cleversan Games
Farm Manager 2021 older $19.99 2,296 79% 69k $1.4M (exactly $1,376,911) Cleversan Games
Old Market Simulator $9.99 4,333 87% 130k $1.3M (exactly $1,298,600) Alcedo Games
Farming & Supermarket Simulator $11.99 835 79% 25k $300k (exactly $300,350) EY08 Games
Tiny Terraces · EA $6.99 938 92% 28k $197k (exactly $196,699) VuVuu
Rise of Industry 2 $34.99 154 55% 4.6k $162k (exactly $161,654) SomaSim
Creator Chronicles $11.99 424 64% 13k $153k (exactly $152,513) Origin Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.