Do I ship it?

GamesEconomyEconomy + Fantasy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Fantasy Economy game?

Economy + Fantasy

Of 186 developers who shipped a Fantasy Economy game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 345 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.2k, ×6.7 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $840; 1 in 20 cleared $660k, ×1054 the market median. Revenue is up 55% on the market; 345 games are announced against 131 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 6.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 55% on the market, 345 announced, ×2.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Economy + Fantasy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 186
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.2k → $18k → $31k → $4.6k → $11k → $6.8k → $2.8k (still earning) → $3.9k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Economy + Fantasy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 186
Bottom 30% $838 (exactly $838)
Median $4.2k (exactly $4,192)
Top 25% $29k (exactly $29,358)
Top 5% $662k (exactly $661,958)
Developers, 2 yr 186
Released games 386
Announced 345
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 55% on the market, supply 140% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Economy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Fantasy
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Economy; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Management, Strategy
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Relaxing, Cute
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 81% positive over 51,211 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $840, median $4.2k, 1 in 4 over $29k, 1 in 20 over $660k.

3 in 10 developers made under $840. 7 in 10 of the 70 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 345 games are announced against 131 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Economy with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorFair116 devs · median $22k · 125 announced
  2. + Football (Soccer)Fair21 devs · median $6.8k · 29 announced
  3. + ScienceFair39 devs · median $5.9k · 39 announced
  4. + MiningFair116 devs · median $5.0k · 173 announced
  5. + LootFair74 devs · median $4.6k · 114 announced
  6. + CollectathonFair125 devs · median $3.8k · 151 announced
  7. + God GameFair47 devs · median $2.8k · 58 announced
  8. + Auto BattlerFair59 devs · median $2.4k · 79 announced
  9. + IdlerFair441 devs · median $2.3k · 589 announced
  10. + IncrementalFair408 devs · median $2.2k · 612 announced
  11. + ArcadeFair199 devs · median $2.1k · 285 announced
  12. + Strategy RPGFair95 devs · median $2.0k · 128 announced

All 161 pairs on the Economy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Dwarf Fortress older $29.99 29,303 94% 879k $26M (exactly $26,363,909) Bay 12 Games
The Bazaar $19.99 14,931 70% 448k $9.0M (exactly $8,954,121) Tempo
Songs of Syx · EA older $24.99 8,842 94% 265k $6.6M (exactly $6,628,847) Gamatron AB
Pioneers of Pagonia $34.99 4,794 81% 144k $5.0M (exactly $5,032,262) Envision Entertainment
Fabledom older $20.99 6,772 85% 203k $4.3M (exactly $4,264,328) Grenaa Games
Tavern Keeper 🍻 · EA $29.99 4,563 94% 137k $4.1M (exactly $4,105,331) Greenheart Games 💚
Ale & Tale Tavern older $14.99 8,692 88% 261k $3.9M (exactly $3,908,792) Scienart Games
Dungeon Alchemist · EA older $44.99 2,666 94% 80k $3.6M (exactly $3,598,300) Briganti
Mind Over Magic $24.99 4,314 86% 129k $3.2M (exactly $3,234,206) Sparkypants
Becastled $19.99 5,349 81% 160k $3.2M (exactly $3,207,795) Mana Potion Studios
Ascension · EA $19.99 2,437 60% 73k $1.5M (exactly $1,461,469) Element Game 微元游戏
Fortune Mill $7.99 3,712 81% 111k $890k (exactly $889,766) Lavaflame2
Tower Wizard $2.99 8,787 96% 264k $788k (exactly $788,194) Barribob
Heroes of Science and Fiction $29.99 852 89% 26k $767k (exactly $766,544) Oxymoron Games
Dungeon Tycoon $14.99 1,472 78% 44k $662k (exactly $661,958) Lunheim Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.