Do I ship it?

GamesTacticalTactical + Dragons

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dragon Tactical game?

Tactical + Dragons

Of 25 developers who shipped a Dragon Tactical game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 50 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.7k, ×6.0 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.2k; 1 in 20 cleared $420k, ×669 the market median. Revenue is up 140% on the market; 50 games are announced against 18 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 6.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 140% on the market, 50 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Tactical + Dragons
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 25
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $300 → $19k → $2.6k → $3.0k → $8.4k → $2.2k (still earning) → $13k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Tactical + Dragons: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 25
Bottom 30% $1.2k (exactly $1,198)
Median $3.7k (exactly $3,742)
Top 25% $35k (exactly $34,783)
Top 5% $420k (exactly $420,020)
Developers, 2 yr 25
Released games 68
Announced 50
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 140% on the market, supply 125% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Tactical
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Dragons
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Tactical; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, RPG, Simulation
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, 3D, Colorful
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 75% positive over 2,661 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.2k, median $3.7k, 1 in 4 over $34k, 1 in 20 over $420k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.2k. 8 in 10 of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 50 games are announced against 18 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Tactical with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Football (American)Strong odds12 devs · median $5.8k · 8 announced
  2. + Mystery DungeonStrong odds20 devs · median $2.5k · 15 announced
  3. + Dating SimFair13 devs · median $11k · 9 announced
  4. + 6DOFFair14 devs · median $2.4k · 19 announced
  5. + Word GameFair23 devs · median $1.8k · 12 announced
  6. + TypingFair16 devs · median $1.2k · 9 announced
  7. + DwarvesFair7 devs · median $1.0k · 10 announced
  8. + Traditional RoguelikeFair38 devs · median $987 · 57 announced
  9. + Dynamic NarrationFair13 devs · median $899 · 16 announced
  10. + Farming SimFair12 devs · median $897 · 10 announced
  11. + SolitaireFair25 devs · median $479 · 22 announced
  12. + LGBTQ+Fair20 devs · median $479 · 21 announced

All 226 pairs on the Tactical page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Dragon Age: Origins - Ultimate Edition older $29.99 28,721 85% 862k $26M (exactly $25,840,284) BioWare
Circle Empires Rivals older $15.99 1,561 89% 47k $749k (exactly $748,812) Luminous
Elemental: Reforged $29.99 478 73% 14k $430k (exactly $430,057) Stardock Entertainment
None Shall Intrude $14.99 934 73% 28k $420k (exactly $420,020) Aeterna Ludi
VenusBlood HOLLOW International older $44.99 287 96% 8.6k $387k (exactly $387,364) Ninetail, Dualtail
BRIGANDINE ABYSS $49.99 248 35% 7.4k $372k (exactly $371,926) Adglobe
Ruff Ghanor older $19.99 435 85% 13k $261k (exactly $260,869) DX Gameworks
Mamon King $12.99 603 90% 18k $235k (exactly $234,989) LiTMUS Co., Ltd.
Mage and Monsters older $4.99 903 89% 27k $135k (exactly $135,179) Lasse Zacho Malver
Dungeon Of Dragon Knight older $11.99 315 74% 9.5k $113k (exactly $113,306) HexGameStudio
Bean Beasts $13.99 113 89% 3.4k $47k (exactly $47,426) Anxious Noob
Swords And Magic: Path Of Conquest · EA $9.99 128 77% 3.8k $38k (exactly $38,362) ShadowMoon Wolf Game Tech Ltd
Dragon Front: Adventures $19.99 58 89% 1.7k $35k (exactly $34,783) High Voltage Software, Inc.
Realms of Madness $15.99 39 89% 1.2k $19k (exactly $18,708) Robin van der Horst
Ariokan™ - create your cards, break the Meta $29.99 18 94% 540 $16k (exactly $16,195) Fatum Games SL
Warena $9.99 42 52% 1.3k $13k (exactly $12,587) Part Time Monkey

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.