Do I ship it?

GamesPuzzlePuzzle + Dogs

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dog Puzzle game?

Puzzle + Dogs

Of 93 developers who shipped a Dog Puzzle game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 80 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $720, ×1.5 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $150. Revenue is flat on the market; 80 games are announced against 49 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.5 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 80 announced, ×1.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Puzzle + Dogs
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 93
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $719 → $896 → $4.0k → $2.4k → $538 → $899 → $897 (still earning) → $180 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Puzzle + Dogs: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 93
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $719 (exactly $719)
Top 25% $2.8k (exactly $2,781)
Top 5% $39k (exactly $39,360)
Developers, 2 yr 93
Released games 322
Announced 80
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $2.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Puzzle
effort 2 / 10 · high · discrete rules, levels are data
Dogs
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Puzzle; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Exploration
Price point
$2.99 typical · top 25% priced $15.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Cute, 2D, Family Friendly
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $15.99 or above; the middle game at $2.99.

The top 10 games average 95% positive over 4,836 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $720, 1 in 4 over $2.7k, 1 in 20 over $39k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 9 in 10 of the 59 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 80 games are announced against 49 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Puzzle with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorFair57 devs · median $8.2k · 53 announced
  2. + Medical SimFair17 devs · median $6.1k · 27 announced
  3. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair40 devs · median $3.6k · 54 announced
  4. + Escape RoomFair161 devs · median $1.8k · 150 announced
  5. + VampiresFair46 devs · median $1.7k · 37 announced
  6. + CatsFair281 devs · median $1.2k · 334 announced
  7. + DemonsFair233 devs · median $1.2k · 248 announced
  8. + God GameFair27 devs · median $1.2k · 30 announced
  9. + RomanceFair209 devs · median $1.0k · 251 announced
  10. + AutomationFair135 devs · median $1.0k · 164 announced
  11. + Tower DefenseFair64 devs · median $1.0k · 67 announced
  12. + LemmingsFair13 devs · median $959 · 11 announced

All 246 pairs on the Puzzle page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Valiant Hearts: The Great War™ / Soldats Inconnus : Mémoires de la Grande Guerre™ older $14.99 24,468 95% 734k $11M (exactly $11,003,260) Ubisoft Montpellier
Ghost Trick: Phantom Detective older $29.99 6,429 97% 193k $5.8M (exactly $5,784,171) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Enigma of Fear $29.99 3,045 95% 91k $2.7M (exactly $2,739,586) Dumativa, Cellbit
Sam & Max Save the World older $19.99 1,745 94% 52k $1.0M (exactly $1,046,476) Skunkape Games
PHOGS! older $24.99 1,171 78% 35k $878k (exactly $877,899) Bit Loom Games
Railbound older $12.99 1,818 94% 55k $708k (exactly $708,475) Afterburn
HUMANITY older $29.99 488 92% 15k $439k (exactly $439,054) tha ltd., Enhance
Samorost 2 older $4.99 2,462 87% 74k $369k (exactly $368,561) Amanita Design
Sam & Max: Beyond Time and Space older $19.99 491 99% 15k $294k (exactly $294,453) Skunkape Games
Sam & Max: The Devil's Playhouse older $19.99 425 98% 13k $255k (exactly $254,872) Skunkape Games
Dogpile $9.99 708 95% 21k $212k (exactly $212,188) Studio Folly, Toot Games, Foot
Koira $17.99 289 93% 8.7k $156k (exactly $155,973) Studio Tolima
Stars In The Trash $11.99 279 97% 8.4k $100k (exactly $100,356) Valhalla Cats
Pup Champs $12.99 101 98% 3.0k $39k (exactly $39,360) Afterburn
The Good Dog: Chasing Shadows · EA $14.99 79 86% 2.4k $36k (exactly $35,526) Poultry Party Games
Puppergeist $4.99 156 95% 4.7k $23k (exactly $23,353) Serenity Forge
Roguematch : The Extraplanar Invasion $14.99 33 84% 990 $15k (exactly $14,840) Starstruck Games
Dawg Game $3.99 104 98% 3.1k $12k (exactly $12,449) Big Noses Entertainment
Woolly Boy and the Circus $7.99 42 64% 1.3k $10k (exactly $10,067) big pineapple

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.