Do I ship it?

GamesRoguelikeRoguelike + Detective

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Detective Roguelike?

Roguelike + Detective

Of 27 developers who shipped a Detective Roguelike in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 32 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $360, ×0.8 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $120; 1 in 20 cleared $73k, ×155 the market median. Revenue is down 100% on the market; 32 games are announced against 20 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 100% on the market, 32 announced, ×1.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Roguelike + Detective
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 27
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.7k → $18k → $1.0k → $239 (still earning) → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Roguelike + Detective: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 27
Bottom 30% $120 (exactly $120)
Median $359 (exactly $359)
Top 25% $15k (exactly $15,285)
Top 5% $74k (exactly $73,605)
Developers, 2 yr 27
Released games 47
Announced 32
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 100% on the market, supply 185% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Roguelike
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Detective
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Roguelike; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Roguelite, Action, Exploration
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $13.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Hand-drawn, Anime
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $13.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 1,251 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $360, 1 in 4 over $15k, 1 in 20 over $73k.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. 8 in 10 of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 32 games are announced against 20 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Roguelike with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + JRPGFair85 devs · median $5.2k · 103 announced
  2. + 6DOFFair15 devs · median $4.7k · 7 announced
  3. + Grand StrategyFair18 devs · median $3.3k · 22 announced
  4. + VampiresFair59 devs · median $3.1k · 58 announced
  5. + DogsFair30 devs · median $1.9k · 17 announced
  6. + Artificial IntelligenceFair60 devs · median $1.8k · 85 announced
  7. + SuperheroFair12 devs · median $1.1k · 17 announced
  8. + IdlerFair160 devs · median $1.0k · 206 announced
  9. + ArcadeFair841 devs · median $959 · 1,066 announced
  10. + Walking SimulatorFair29 devs · median $718 · 28 announced
  11. + 2D PlatformerFair264 devs · median $599 · 320 announced
  12. + Traditional RoguelikeFair247 devs · median $599 · 314 announced

All 231 pairs on the Roguelike page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
HellSign older $19.99 2,147 67% 64k $1.3M (exactly $1,287,556) Ballistic Interactive
Betrayal At Club Low older $9.99 538 97% 16k $161k (exactly $161,239) Cosmo D Studios
Rina's Undercover Train Operation $13.99 286 70% 8.6k $120k (exactly $120,034) Metamorphose
Super Drift Blade $6.99 351 94% 11k $74k (exactly $73,605) Liujiajun
2 Fights in 2 Tight Spaces · EA $12.99 115 84% 3.5k $45k (exactly $44,816) Ground Shatter
Vegangsters $12.99 69 92% 2.1k $27k (exactly $26,889) Poison Pill Games
XXX_CYBERRAT_XXX older $5.99 137 94% 4.1k $25k (exactly $24,619) Nocturne Studio
Hodgepodge Hunch older $4.99 140 93% 4.2k $21k (exactly $20,958) uracon
Noir Syndrome older $4.99 138 65% 4.1k $21k (exactly $20,659) Glass Knuckle Games
Subway Exorcist Girl $1.99 306 82% 9.2k $18k (exactly $18,268) 纤指游戏
N.O.X. · EA $16.99 31 51% 930 $16k (exactly $15,801) LuminDrive
Long Live Caesar $9.99 51 78% 1.5k $15k (exactly $15,285) Yury Khovansky, Vladislavs Viktorovs
TradingLife · EA $11.99 10 100% 300 $3.6k (exactly $3,597) Fun(ctor) Studio
Blightseed $6.99 12 100% 360 $2.5k (exactly $2,516) Zen of Mars
Agent Dunoz $3.99 20 75% 600 $2.4k (exactly $2,394) VIWESA GAMES

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.