Do I ship it?

GamesDestructionDestruction + War

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a War Destruction game?

Destruction + War

Of 55 developers who shipped a War Destruction game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 116 more are announced, ×4.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.2k, ×1.9 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $1.7M, ×2761 the market median. Revenue is up 180% on the market; 116 games are announced against 29 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 180% on the market, 116 announced, ×4.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Destruction + War
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 55
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.5k → $772 → $479 → $955 → $1.8k → $1.9k → $1.8k (still earning) → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Destruction + War: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 55
Bottom 30% $300 (exactly $300)
Median $1.2k (exactly $1,199)
Top 25% $5.9k (exactly $5,933)
Top 5% $1.7M (exactly $1,733,722)
Developers, 2 yr 55
Released games 175
Announced 116
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 180% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Destruction
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
War
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Destruction; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Tactical, Combat
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Realistic
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 64% positive over 309,501 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.2k, 1 in 4 over $5.9k, 1 in 20 over $1.7M.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 32 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 116 games are announced against 29 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Destruction with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Space SimFair14 devs · median $3.7k · 22 announced
  2. + ModernFair26 devs · median $1.6k · 28 announced
  3. + God GameFair19 devs · median $899 · 20 announced
  4. + Hidden ObjectFair9 devs · median $719 · 14 announced
  5. + Hack and SlashPoor odds19 devs · median $43k · 57 announced
  6. + HistoricalPoor odds15 devs · median $26k · 22 announced
  7. + CapitalismPoor odds17 devs · median $15k · 46 announced
  8. + Online Co-OpPoor odds37 devs · median $13k · 102 announced
  9. + Co-opPoor odds50 devs · median $11k · 113 announced
  10. + Automobile SimPoor odds22 devs · median $9.0k · 44 announced
  11. + ManagementPoor odds36 devs · median $6.1k · 129 announced
  12. + AutomationPoor odds22 devs · median $6.0k · 46 announced

All 139 pairs on the Destruction page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Battlefield™ 6 $69.99 295,442 63% 8.9M $620M (exactly $620,339,567) Battlefield Studios
Battlefield™ 2042 older $59.99 260,308 49% 7.8M $468M (exactly $468,476,308) DICE
Battlefield™ V older $49.99 236,709 70% 7.1M $355M (exactly $354,992,487) DICE
Battlefield™ 1 older $39.99 200,661 86% 6.0M $241M (exactly $240,733,002) DICE
Battlefield 4™ older $39.99 69,373 84% 2.1M $83M (exactly $83,226,788) DICE
Total War: THREE KINGDOMS older $39.99 63,110 82% 1.9M $76M (exactly $75,713,067) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (M… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux))
BattleBit Remastered · EA older $14.99 127,680 82% 3.8M $57M (exactly $57,417,696) SgtOkiDoki, Vilaskis, TheLiquidHorse
Men of War: Assault Squad 2 older $29.99 35,744 91% 1.1M $32M (exactly $32,158,877) Digitalmindsoft
Battlefield 3™ older $39.99 16,378 71% 491k $20M (exactly $19,648,687) DICE
Planetary Annihilation: TITANS older $29.99 11,401 84% 342k $10M (exactly $10,257,480) Planetary Annihilation Inc
Over The Top: WWI $19.14 6,683 84% 200k $3.8M (exactly $3,837,379) Flying Squirrel Entertainment
Call to Arms: Panzer Elite · EA $29.99 1,927 69% 58k $1.7M (exactly $1,733,722) Digitalmindsoft
Forefront $27.99 1,913 84% 57k $1.6M (exactly $1,606,346) Triangle Factory
ICBM: Escalation $29.99 1,248 86% 37k $1.1M (exactly $1,122,826) SoftWarWare
Vietnam War · EA $14.99 1,704 84% 51k $766k (exactly $766,289) Thorium Game Lab
Annihilate The Spance · EA $29.99 347 90% 10k $312k (exactly $312,196) Skyglow Softworks
Good Kill! · EA $13.99 104 68% 3.1k $44k (exactly $43,649) gamegine
Red Chaos - The Strict Order · EA $17.99 79 81% 2.4k $43k (exactly $42,636) Squarecut Games
Battlefield Commander WWII · EA $19.99 54 70% 1.6k $32k (exactly $32,384) Sword of Steel

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.