Do I ship it?

GamesDestructionDestruction + Villain Protagonist

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Villain-Led Destruction game?

Destruction + Villain Protagonist

Only 5 developers shipped a Villain-Led Destruction game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Excidio The Kaiju Simulator, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 14 more are announced, ×7.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 6 / 10 build.

Only 2 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $14k against a market of $630. 14 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 22.2 times the market baseline, revenue too few recent games to read momentum, 14 announced, ×7.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Destruction + Villain Protagonist
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 5

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Destruction + Villain Protagonist: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 5
Bottom 30% $2.9k (exactly $2,866)
Median $14k (exactly $13,941)
Top 25% $48k (exactly $47,981)
Top 5% $95k (exactly $95,087)
Developers, 2 yr 5
Released games 25
Announced 14
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $12.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 35% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 4%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Destruction
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Villain Protagonist
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Destruction
Price point
$12.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 80% positive over 24,089 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $2.9k, median $14k, 1 in 4 over $47k, 1 in 20 over $95k.

3 in 10 developers made under $2.9k. 14 games are announced against 2 developers who shipped in the last year, ×7.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Destruction with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Space SimFair14 devs · median $3.7k · 22 announced
  2. + ModernFair26 devs · median $1.6k · 28 announced
  3. + God GameFair19 devs · median $899 · 20 announced
  4. + Hidden ObjectFair9 devs · median $719 · 14 announced
  5. + Hack and SlashPoor odds19 devs · median $43k · 57 announced
  6. + HistoricalPoor odds15 devs · median $26k · 22 announced
  7. + CapitalismPoor odds17 devs · median $15k · 46 announced
  8. + Online Co-OpPoor odds37 devs · median $13k · 102 announced
  9. + Co-opPoor odds50 devs · median $11k · 113 announced
  10. + Automobile SimPoor odds22 devs · median $9.0k · 44 announced
  11. + ManagementPoor odds36 devs · median $6.1k · 129 announced
  12. + AutomationPoor odds22 devs · median $6.0k · 46 announced

All 139 pairs on the Destruction page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Destroy All Humans! older $29.99 8,971 92% 269k $8.1M (exactly $8,071,209) Black Forest Games, Pandemic Studios
DRAGON BALL: THE BREAKERS older $29.99 4,983 50% 149k $4.5M (exactly $4,483,205) Dimps Corporation
Destroy All Humans! 2 - Reprobed older $39.99 2,271 79% 68k $2.7M (exactly $2,724,519) Black Forest Games
X-Morph: Defense older $19.99 3,272 90% 98k $2.0M (exactly $1,962,218) EXOR Studios
Ruinarch older $24.99 1,336 62% 40k $1.0M (exactly $1,001,599) Maccima Games LLC
Terror of Hemasaurus older $14.99 766 91% 23k $344k (exactly $344,470) Loren Lemcke
Rain on Your Parade older $14.99 727 96% 22k $327k (exactly $326,932) Unbound Creations
Catlateral Damage older $9.99 1,006 88% 30k $301k (exactly $301,498) Manekoware, Fire Hose Games
Soulash older $14.99 513 69% 15k $231k (exactly $230,696) Artur Smiarowski
Excidio The Kaiju Simulator $12.99 244 92% 7.3k $95k (exactly $95,087) TokuPop
Munch $16.66 96 60% 2.9k $48k (exactly $47,981) Mac n Cheese Games
Vindefiant $14.99 31 80% 930 $14k (exactly $13,941) Blakey Games
Pigeon Hater $1.99 48 95% 1.4k $2.9k (exactly $2,866) Gif2MemeGame
SCP: Pale Weaver $5.99 4 0% 120 $719 (exactly $719) why so serious?

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.