Do I ship it?

Games › Destruction › Destruction + Top-Down Shooter

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Top-Down Shooter Destruction game?

Destruction + Top-Down Shooter

Of 36 developers who shipped a Top-Down Shooter Destruction game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 79 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $960, ×1.5 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $120; 1 in 20 cleared $400k, ×642 the market median. Revenue is down 100% on the market; 79 games are announced against 24 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 100% on the market, 79 announced, ×3.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Destruction + Top-Down Shooter
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 36
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $449 → $598 → $150 → $5.6k → $52k → $120 → $1.5k (still earning) → $179 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Destruction + Top-Down Shooter: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 36
Bottom 30% $120 (exactly $120)
Median $959 (exactly $959)
Top 25% $26k (exactly $26,255)
Top 5% $403k (exactly $403,381)
Developers, 2 yr 36
Released games 128
Announced 79
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.00

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 100% on the market, supply 100% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Destruction
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Top-Down Shooter
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Destruction, Top-Down Shooter; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Shooter, Bullet Hell
Price point
$5.00 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Top-Down, 2D, Colorful
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $5.00.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 5,291 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $960, 1 in 4 over $26k, 1 in 20 over $400k.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. 6 in 10 of the 14 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 79 games are announced against 24 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Destruction with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Space SimFair14 devs · median $3.7k · 22 announced
  2. + ModernFair26 devs · median $1.6k · 28 announced
  3. + God GameFair19 devs · median $899 · 20 announced
  4. + Hidden ObjectFair9 devs · median $719 · 14 announced
  5. + Hack and SlashPoor odds19 devs · median $43k · 57 announced
  6. + HistoricalPoor odds15 devs · median $26k · 22 announced
  7. + CapitalismPoor odds17 devs · median $15k · 46 announced
  8. + Online Co-OpPoor odds37 devs · median $13k · 102 announced
  9. + Co-opPoor odds50 devs · median $11k · 113 announced
  10. + Automobile SimPoor odds22 devs · median $9.0k · 44 announced
  11. + ManagementPoor odds36 devs · median $6.1k · 129 announced
  12. + AutomationPoor odds22 devs · median $6.0k · 46 announced

All 139 pairs on the Destruction page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Brigador: Up-Armored Edition 2016 · $3.4M X-Morph: Defense 2017 · $2.0M Taur 2020 · $1.5M Chippy 2019 · $490k Splatter - Zombiecalypse Now 2014 · $440k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Brigador: Up-Armored Edition older $24.99 4,580 93% 137k $3.4M (exactly $3,433,626) Stellar Jockeys, Gausswerks
X-Morph: Defense older $19.99 3,272 90% 98k $2.0M (exactly $1,962,218) EXOR Studios
Taur older $24.99 2,011 79% 60k $1.5M (exactly $1,507,647) Echo Entertainment
Chippy older $14.99 1,089 90% 33k $490k (exactly $489,723) Facepunch Studios
Splatter - Zombiecalypse Now older $6.99 2,098 89% 63k $440k (exactly $439,951) Dreamworlds
Brigador Killers · EA $24.99 572 69% 17k $429k (exactly $428,828) Stellar Jockeys, Gausswerks
Sektori $14.99 897 96% 27k $403k (exactly $403,381) Kimmo Lahtinen
Mr. Shifty older $14.99 855 88% 26k $384k (exactly $384,494) Team Shifty
Tesla vs Lovecraft older $14.99 851 89% 26k $383k (exactly $382,695) 10tons Ltd
Galactic Glitch $12.99 920 89% 28k $359k (exactly $358,524) Crunchy Leaf Games
Mech Havoc · EA $9.99 813 96% 24k $244k (exactly $243,656) Mid Development
Glitchpunk $19.99 174 47% 5.2k $104k (exactly $104,348) Dark Lord
MYRIAD DEATH $8.99 274 85% 8.2k $74k (exactly $73,898) IGNITION M, Clover Lab.,inc.
Nebulock $2.99 583 86% 17k $52k (exactly $52,295) LostVolBytes
Planet Killer $12.99 94 79% 2.8k $37k (exactly $36,632) Talisman One Studio
Deep Space Cache $0.99 884 90% 27k $26k (exactly $26,255) Monu
Son of a Gun $9.99 80 78% 2.4k $24k (exactly $23,976) Crank Goblin

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.