Do I ship it?

GamesDestructionDestruction + Sports

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Destruction Sports game?

Destruction + Sports

Only 9 developers shipped a Destruction Sports game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Crafty Racer, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 33 more are announced, ×4.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $450, ×0.7 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $50; 1 in 20 cleared $4.9k, ×7.9 the market median. Momentum is unreadable here, too few recent games; 33 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.7 times the market baseline, revenue too few recent games to read momentum, 33 announced, ×4.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Destruction + Sports
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 9
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $449 → $898 → $449 → $1.9k
Outcomes for Destruction + Sports: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 9
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $449 (exactly $449)
Top 25% $1.9k (exactly $1,948)
Top 5% $4.9k (exactly $4,947)
Developers, 2 yr 9
Released games 70
Announced 33
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 250% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Destruction
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Sports
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Destruction, Sports
Price point
$4.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 177,653 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $450, 1 in 4 over $1.9k, 1 in 20 over $4.9k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 33 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Destruction with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Space SimFair14 devs · median $3.7k · 22 announced
  2. + ModernFair26 devs · median $1.6k · 28 announced
  3. + God GameFair19 devs · median $899 · 20 announced
  4. + Hidden ObjectFair9 devs · median $719 · 14 announced
  5. + Hack and SlashPoor odds19 devs · median $43k · 57 announced
  6. + HistoricalPoor odds15 devs · median $26k · 22 announced
  7. + CapitalismPoor odds17 devs · median $15k · 46 announced
  8. + Online Co-OpPoor odds37 devs · median $13k · 102 announced
  9. + Co-opPoor odds50 devs · median $11k · 113 announced
  10. + Automobile SimPoor odds22 devs · median $9.0k · 44 announced
  11. + ManagementPoor odds36 devs · median $6.1k · 129 announced
  12. + AutomationPoor odds22 devs · median $6.0k · 46 announced

All 139 pairs on the Destruction page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Need for Speed™ Heat older $69.99 128,933 84% 3.9M $271M (exactly $270,720,620) Ghost Games
Wreckfest older $29.99 31,390 87% 942k $28M (exactly $28,241,583) Bugbear
Need for Speed™ Rivals older $19.99 9,265 76% 278k $5.6M (exactly $5,556,220) Criterion Games
Gas Guzzlers Extreme older $24.99 3,081 86% 92k $2.3M (exactly $2,309,826) Gamepires
TRAIL OUT older $19.99 3,019 81% 91k $1.8M (exactly $1,810,494) GOOD BOYS
Ridge Racer™ Unbounded older $9.99 1,159 64% 35k $347k (exactly $347,352) BUGBEAR
Monster Jam™ Showdown older $49.99 213 71% 6.4k $319k (exactly $319,436) Milestone S.r.l.
Monster Truck Championship older $39.99 142 75% 4.3k $170k (exactly $170,357) Teyon
Gym Manager older $9.99 306 80% 9.2k $92k (exactly $91,708) Han GAMES
Dangerous Golf older $19.99 145 73% 4.4k $87k (exactly $86,956) Three Fields Entertainment
Crafty Racer · EA $14.99 11 100% 330 $4.9k (exactly $4,947) Peterclark
Super Power Racing · EA $6.50 15 100% 450 $2.9k (exactly $2,925) Monster Finger Games
Wreckage · EA $12.99 5 80% 150 $1.9k (exactly $1,948) Jupiter Lighthouse Games
Carnage Battle Arena $9.99 4 100% 120 $1.2k (exactly $1,199) Boombit
Landslip $4.99 3 100% 90 $449 (exactly $449) Pixel Doctrine
Excavator Simulator REMAKE $4.99 3 66% 90 $449 (exactly $449) idris Celik
FloorBreaker $1.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) PotGames
Apple Shoot · EA $4.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Hard Shark Games
Rush or Die $1.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) 朱莹

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.