Do I ship it?

GamesDestructionDestruction + Simulation

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Simulation Destruction game?

Destruction + Simulation

Of 140 developers who shipped a Simulation Destruction game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 335 more are announced, ×3.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.8k, ×4.5 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $900; 1 in 20 cleared $2.7M, ×4449 the market median. Revenue is up 70% on the market; 335 games are announced against 98 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.5 times the market baseline, revenue up 70% on the market, 335 announced, ×3.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Destruction + Simulation
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 140
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $9.6k → $2.7k → $19k → $2.7k → $11k → $6.3k → $1.5k (still earning) → $2.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Destruction + Simulation: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 140
Bottom 30% $898 (exactly $898)
Median $2.8k (exactly $2,844)
Top 25% $36k (exactly $35,610)
Top 5% $2.8M (exactly $2,794,103)
Developers, 2 yr 140
Released games 515
Announced 335
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 70% on the market, supply 120% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Destruction
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Simulation
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Destruction, Simulation; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Physics, Action, Sandbox
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Realistic, 3D, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 136,026 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $900, median $2.8k, 1 in 4 over $35k, 1 in 20 over $2.7M.

3 in 10 developers made under $900. 7 in 10 of the 54 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 335 games are announced against 98 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Destruction with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Space SimFair14 devs · median $3.7k · 22 announced
  2. + ModernFair26 devs · median $1.6k · 28 announced
  3. + God GameFair19 devs · median $899 · 20 announced
  4. + Hidden ObjectFair9 devs · median $719 · 14 announced
  5. + Hack and SlashPoor odds19 devs · median $43k · 57 announced
  6. + HistoricalPoor odds15 devs · median $26k · 22 announced
  7. + CapitalismPoor odds17 devs · median $15k · 46 announced
  8. + Online Co-OpPoor odds37 devs · median $13k · 102 announced
  9. + Co-opPoor odds50 devs · median $11k · 113 announced
  10. + Automobile SimPoor odds22 devs · median $9.0k · 44 announced
  11. + ManagementPoor odds36 devs · median $6.1k · 129 announced
  12. + AutomationPoor odds22 devs · median $6.0k · 46 announced

All 139 pairs on the Destruction page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
BeamNG.drive · EA older $24.99 388,236 97% 12M $291M (exactly $291,060,529) BeamNG
Teardown older $29.99 126,563 95% 3.8M $114M (exactly $113,868,731) Tuxedo Labs
People Playground older $9.99 298,158 98% 8.9M $89M (exactly $89,357,953) mestiez
Total War: THREE KINGDOMS older $39.99 63,110 82% 1.9M $76M (exactly $75,713,067) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (M… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux))
WARDOGS · EA $39.99 58,250 81% 1.7M $70M (exactly $69,882,525) BULKHEAD
Brick Rigs older $19.99 53,749 95% 1.6M $32M (exactly $32,233,275) Fluppisoft GmbH
Men of War: Assault Squad 2 older $29.99 35,744 91% 1.1M $32M (exactly $32,158,877) Digitalmindsoft
WorldBox - God Simulator · EA older $19.99 51,071 95% 1.5M $31M (exactly $30,627,279) Maxim Karpenko
Wreckfest older $29.99 31,390 87% 942k $28M (exactly $28,241,583) Bugbear
Universe Sandbox · EA older $29.99 27,843 96% 835k $25M (exactly $25,050,347) Giant Army
RoadCraft $39.99 13,527 74% 406k $16M (exactly $16,228,342) Saber Interactive
Hot Dogs, Horseshoes & Hand Grenades $19.99 22,774 97% 683k $14M (exactly $13,657,568) RUST LTD.
Wreckfest 2 · EA $34.99 5,578 73% 167k $5.9M (exactly $5,855,227) Bugbear
Space Engineers 2 · EA $29.99 5,095 74% 153k $4.6M (exactly $4,583,972) Keen Software House
Over The Top: WWI $19.14 6,683 84% 200k $3.8M (exactly $3,837,379) Flying Squirrel Entertainment
Aviassembly · EA $9.99 9,323 96% 280k $2.8M (exactly $2,794,103) Jelle Booij
Bills Must Be Paid $6.99 9,928 96% 298k $2.1M (exactly $2,081,902) Rike Games
Call to Arms: Panzer Elite · EA $29.99 1,927 69% 58k $1.7M (exactly $1,733,722) Digitalmindsoft
Funnel Runners · EA $14.99 2,941 83% 88k $1.3M (exactly $1,322,568) Supernova Studios LLC

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.