Do I ship it?

GamesDestructionDestruction + Shooter

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Destruction Shooter?

Destruction + Shooter

Of 141 developers who shipped a Destruction Shooter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 284 more are announced, ×3.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.2k, ×1.9 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $780k, ×1257 the market median. Revenue is down 20% on the market; 284 games are announced against 80 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 20% on the market, 284 announced, ×3.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Destruction + Shooter
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 141
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.8k → $599 → $719 → $2.0k → $1.8k → $1.5k → $449 (still earning) → $809 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Destruction + Shooter: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 141
Bottom 30% $300 (exactly $300)
Median $1.2k (exactly $1,199)
Top 25% $12k (exactly $11,642)
Top 5% $789k (exactly $789,205)
Developers, 2 yr 141
Released games 495
Announced 284
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 20% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Destruction
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Shooter
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Destruction, Shooter; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Combat, FPS
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 69% positive over 398,681 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.2k, 1 in 4 over $11k, 1 in 20 over $780k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 7 in 10 of the 75 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 284 games are announced against 80 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Destruction with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Space SimFair14 devs · median $3.7k · 22 announced
  2. + ModernFair26 devs · median $1.6k · 28 announced
  3. + God GameFair19 devs · median $899 · 20 announced
  4. + Hidden ObjectFair9 devs · median $719 · 14 announced
  5. + Hack and SlashPoor odds19 devs · median $43k · 57 announced
  6. + HistoricalPoor odds15 devs · median $26k · 22 announced
  7. + CapitalismPoor odds17 devs · median $15k · 46 announced
  8. + Online Co-OpPoor odds37 devs · median $13k · 102 announced
  9. + Co-opPoor odds50 devs · median $11k · 113 announced
  10. + Automobile SimPoor odds22 devs · median $9.0k · 44 announced
  11. + ManagementPoor odds36 devs · median $6.1k · 129 announced
  12. + AutomationPoor odds22 devs · median $6.0k · 46 announced

All 139 pairs on the Destruction page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Battlefield™ 6 $69.99 295,442 63% 8.9M $620M (exactly $620,339,567) Battlefield Studios
Battlefield™ 2042 older $59.99 260,308 49% 7.8M $468M (exactly $468,476,308) DICE
Battlefield™ V older $49.99 236,709 70% 7.1M $355M (exactly $354,992,487) DICE
Battlefield™ 1 older $39.99 200,661 86% 6.0M $241M (exactly $240,733,002) DICE
Battlefield 4™ older $39.99 69,373 84% 2.1M $83M (exactly $83,226,788) DICE
WARDOGS · EA $39.99 58,250 81% 1.7M $70M (exactly $69,882,525) BULKHEAD
Just Cause™ 3 older $19.99 104,140 85% 3.1M $62M (exactly $62,452,758) Avalanche Studios
BattleBit Remastered · EA older $14.99 127,680 82% 3.8M $57M (exactly $57,417,696) SgtOkiDoki, Vilaskis, TheLiquidHorse
Just Cause 4 Reloaded older $39.64 23,358 63% 701k $28M (exactly $27,777,334) Avalanche Studios
Battlefield 3™ older $39.99 16,378 71% 491k $20M (exactly $19,648,687) DICE
Hot Dogs, Horseshoes & Hand Grenades $19.99 22,774 97% 683k $14M (exactly $13,657,568) RUST LTD.
Echo Point Nova $24.99 7,521 96% 226k $5.6M (exactly $5,638,494) Greylock Studio
Over The Top: WWI $19.14 6,683 84% 200k $3.8M (exactly $3,837,379) Flying Squirrel Entertainment
VOID/BREAKER · EA $29.99 2,506 91% 75k $2.3M (exactly $2,254,648) Stubby Games
Forefront $27.99 1,913 84% 57k $1.6M (exactly $1,606,346) Triangle Factory
SimplePlanes 2 · EA $19.99 1,316 92% 39k $789k (exactly $789,205) Jundroo, LLC
Vietnam War · EA $14.99 1,704 84% 51k $766k (exactly $766,289) Thorium Game Lab
Brigador Killers · EA $24.99 572 69% 17k $429k (exactly $428,828) Stellar Jockeys, Gausswerks

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.