Do I ship it?

Games › Destruction › Destruction + Shoot 'Em Up

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Shoot 'Em Up Destruction game?

Destruction + Shoot 'Em Up

Of 54 developers who shipped a Shoot 'Em Up Destruction game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 74 more are announced, ×2.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $540, ×0.9 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150; 1 in 20 cleared $240k, ×388 the market median. Revenue is down 80% on the market; 74 games are announced against 35 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 80% on the market, 74 announced, ×2.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Destruction + Shoot 'Em Up
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 54
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $449 → $748 → $2.7k → $1.1k → $1.4k → $539 → $418 (still earning) → $150 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Destruction + Shoot 'Em Up: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 54
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $539 (exactly $539)
Top 25% $5.1k (exactly $5,095)
Top 5% $244k (exactly $243,656)
Developers, 2 yr 54
Released games 215
Announced 74
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 80% on the market, supply 75% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Destruction
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Shoot 'Em Up
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Destruction, Shoot 'Em Up; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Shooter, Arcade
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Colorful, Top-Down
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 3,486 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $540, 1 in 4 over $5.0k, 1 in 20 over $240k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 9 in 10 of the 22 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 74 games are announced against 35 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Destruction with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Space SimFair14 devs · median $3.7k · 22 announced
  2. + ModernFair26 devs · median $1.6k · 28 announced
  3. + God GameFair19 devs · median $899 · 20 announced
  4. + Hidden ObjectFair9 devs · median $719 · 14 announced
  5. + Hack and SlashPoor odds19 devs · median $43k · 57 announced
  6. + HistoricalPoor odds15 devs · median $26k · 22 announced
  7. + CapitalismPoor odds17 devs · median $15k · 46 announced
  8. + Online Co-OpPoor odds37 devs · median $13k · 102 announced
  9. + Co-opPoor odds50 devs · median $11k · 113 announced
  10. + Automobile SimPoor odds22 devs · median $9.0k · 44 announced
  11. + ManagementPoor odds36 devs · median $6.1k · 129 announced
  12. + AutomationPoor odds22 devs · median $6.0k · 46 announced

All 139 pairs on the Destruction page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Saints Row®: The Third™ Remastered 2021 · $3.6M HARD BULLET 2020 · EA · $3.5M Kill It With Fire 2020 · $1.6M Astebreed: Definitive Edition 2014 · $763k Angel at Dusk 2024 · $754k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Saints Row®: The Third™ Remastered older $29.99 3,968 73% 119k $3.6M (exactly $3,570,010) Deep Silver Volition, Sperasoft
HARD BULLET · EA older $19.99 5,860 83% 176k $3.5M (exactly $3,514,242) GexagonVR
Kill It With Fire older $12.99 4,036 95% 121k $1.6M (exactly $1,572,829) Casey Donnellan Games LLC
Astebreed: Definitive Edition older $19.99 1,272 87% 38k $763k (exactly $762,818) Edelweiss
Angel at Dusk older $14.99 1,676 98% 50k $754k (exactly $753,697) Akiragoya
Chippy older $14.99 1,089 90% 33k $490k (exactly $489,723) Facepunch Studios
Planes, Bullets and Vodka older $4.99 2,840 84% 85k $425k (exactly $425,148) NukGames
BLACKWOOD $24.99 565 46% 17k $424k (exactly $423,580) AttritoM7 Productions
Sektori $14.99 897 96% 27k $403k (exactly $403,381) Kimmo Lahtinen
Tesla vs Lovecraft older $14.99 851 89% 26k $383k (exactly $382,695) 10tons Ltd
Mech Havoc · EA $9.99 813 96% 24k $244k (exactly $243,656) Mid Development
TOP DOG $9.99 263 88% 7.9k $79k (exactly $78,821) MorfeoDev
Nebulock $2.99 583 86% 17k $52k (exactly $52,295) LostVolBytes
Son of a Gun $9.99 80 78% 2.4k $24k (exactly $23,976) Crank Goblin
Deadliest Pigeon $6.99 99 93% 3.0k $21k (exactly $20,760) Rusty Rex
Disaster Arms - Impact Project B.A.H.N. $9.99 57 100% 1.7k $17k (exactly $17,083) PD_CGT
Around The Core $3.99 95 86% 2.9k $11k (exactly $11,372) draftentropy
Chaos on Wheels $9.99 34 67% 1.0k $10k (exactly $10,190) Acodeon Development

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.