Do I ship it?

GamesDestructionDestruction + Science

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Science Destruction game?

Destruction + Science

Only 16 developers shipped a Science Destruction game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Space Engineers 2, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 22 more are announced, ×2.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.6k, ×4.2 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $750; 1 in 20 cleared $4.5M, ×7299 the market median. Revenue is up 45% on the market; 22 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.2 times the market baseline, revenue up 45% on the market, 22 announced, ×2.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Destruction + Science
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 16

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Destruction + Science: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 16
Bottom 30% $748 (exactly $748)
Median $2.6k (exactly $2,637)
Top 25% $120k (exactly $119,940)
Top 5% $4.6M (exactly $4,583,972)
Developers, 2 yr 16
Released games 40
Announced 22
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 45% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Destruction
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Science
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Destruction
Price point
$9.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 15,510 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $750, median $2.6k, 1 in 4 over $110k, 1 in 20 over $4.5M.

3 in 10 developers made under $750. 6 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 22 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Destruction with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Space SimFair14 devs · median $3.7k · 22 announced
  2. + ModernFair26 devs · median $1.6k · 28 announced
  3. + God GameFair19 devs · median $899 · 20 announced
  4. + Hidden ObjectFair9 devs · median $719 · 14 announced
  5. + Hack and SlashPoor odds19 devs · median $43k · 57 announced
  6. + HistoricalPoor odds15 devs · median $26k · 22 announced
  7. + CapitalismPoor odds17 devs · median $15k · 46 announced
  8. + Online Co-OpPoor odds37 devs · median $13k · 102 announced
  9. + Co-opPoor odds50 devs · median $11k · 113 announced
  10. + Automobile SimPoor odds22 devs · median $9.0k · 44 announced
  11. + ManagementPoor odds36 devs · median $6.1k · 129 announced
  12. + AutomationPoor odds22 devs · median $6.0k · 46 announced

All 139 pairs on the Destruction page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Universe Sandbox · EA older $29.99 27,843 96% 835k $25M (exactly $25,050,347) Giant Army
Space Engineers 2 · EA $29.99 5,095 74% 153k $4.6M (exactly $4,583,972) Keen Software House
OUTBRK · EA older $34.99 3,221 82% 97k $3.4M (exactly $3,381,084) Sublime
Starpoint Gemini 2 older $34.99 3,021 70% 91k $3.2M (exactly $3,171,144) Little Green Men Games
Aviassembly · EA $9.99 9,323 96% 280k $2.8M (exactly $2,794,103) Jelle Booij
Storm Chasers · EA older $12.99 2,763 89% 83k $1.1M (exactly $1,076,741) Little Cloud Games
RIPOUT older $19.99 783 65% 23k $470k (exactly $469,565) Pet Project Games
Bionic Bay $19.99 750 84% 23k $450k (exactly $449,775) Psychoflow Studio, Mureena Oy
Tesla vs Lovecraft older $14.99 851 89% 26k $383k (exactly $382,695) 10tons Ltd
CAR TUNE: Project · EA older $18.99 585 84% 18k $333k (exactly $333,274) Vertices Software
Terra Firma 2 · EA $19.99 200 92% 6.0k $120k (exactly $119,940) Working as Intended
Nuclear Design Bureau · EA $9.99 88 79% 2.6k $26k (exactly $26,374) Design Bureau KB-11
Space Crash Simulator $9.99 21 85% 630 $6.3k (exactly $6,294) WPC
Macht: Cosmic Engine · EA $24.99 5 80% 150 $3.7k (exactly $3,748) Kestro Games
Propa. $7.99 11 54% 330 $2.6k (exactly $2,637) Contagio Games
Alembic $4.99 14 85% 420 $2.1k (exactly $2,096) Equious
Makarov Physics Suite $19.99 3 100% 90 $1.8k (exactly $1,799) Makarov Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.