Do I ship it?

GamesDestructionDestruction + Runner

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Runner Destruction game?

Destruction + Runner

Only 16 developers shipped a Runner Destruction game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Bionic Bay, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 28 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $59 in the last 2 years and $150 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 6 / 10 build. 12 developers shipped in the last year and 28 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.1 times the market baseline, revenue down 100% on the market, 28 announced, ×2.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Destruction + Runner
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 16
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $898 → $0 → $719 → $90 → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Destruction + Runner: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 16
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $59 (exactly $59)
Top 25% $449 (exactly $449)
Top 5% $450k (exactly $449,775)
Developers, 2 yr 16
Released games 45
Announced 28
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $2.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 200% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Destruction
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Runner
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Destruction, Runner; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Physics, Action, Action-Adventure
Price point
$2.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Stylized, 2D, Difficult
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $2.99.

The top 8 games average 85% positive over 812 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $59, 1 in 4 over $440, 1 in 20 over $440k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 7 in 10 of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 28 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Destruction with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Space SimFair14 devs · median $3.7k · 22 announced
  2. + ModernFair26 devs · median $1.6k · 28 announced
  3. + God GameFair19 devs · median $899 · 20 announced
  4. + Hidden ObjectFair9 devs · median $719 · 14 announced
  5. + Hack and SlashPoor odds19 devs · median $43k · 57 announced
  6. + HistoricalPoor odds15 devs · median $26k · 22 announced
  7. + CapitalismPoor odds17 devs · median $15k · 46 announced
  8. + Online Co-OpPoor odds37 devs · median $13k · 102 announced
  9. + Co-opPoor odds50 devs · median $11k · 113 announced
  10. + Automobile SimPoor odds22 devs · median $9.0k · 44 announced
  11. + ManagementPoor odds36 devs · median $6.1k · 129 announced
  12. + AutomationPoor odds22 devs · median $6.0k · 46 announced

All 139 pairs on the Destruction page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Hextech Mayhem: A League of Legends Story™ older $9.99 2,238 79% 67k $671k (exactly $670,729) Choice Provisions
Bionic Bay $19.99 750 84% 23k $450k (exactly $449,775) Psychoflow Studio, Mureena Oy
I Hate Running Backwards older $14.99 188 71% 5.6k $85k (exactly $84,544) Binx Games, Croteam Incubator, Croteam
Decimate Drive older $7.99 321 91% 9.6k $77k (exactly $76,944) Some Random Designing
SCHROTT: Roguelike Racer · EA $12.99 49 91% 1.5k $19k (exactly $19,095) Ivy Juice
Zombie Simulator older $4.99 100 81% 3.0k $15k (exactly $14,970) ZHANG FAN
PEE WAR! older $1.99 61 93% 1.8k $3.6k (exactly $3,642) LBR games, Integer games
GasZilla older $4.99 23 91% 690 $3.4k (exactly $3,443) SUJIKO Media Group
YetiFree older $4.99 15 100% 450 $2.2k (exactly $2,246) Obliterated Entertainment
Caveman older $4.99 10 100% 300 $1.5k (exactly $1,497) 7Tech
Mistress Of The Tower $5.99 4 100% 120 $719 (exactly $719) Pipot Studio
Landslip $4.99 3 100% 90 $449 (exactly $449) Pixel Doctrine
Beat Your Boss $3.09 2 50% 60 $185 (exactly $185) Shiba Arts
Pyrosynchist $2.99 1 100% 30 $90 (exactly $90) Orb Weaver Games
Pug Trouble $1.99 1 100% 30 $60 (exactly $60) Karlis Zabers
Turbo Takedown $0.99 2 100% 60 $59 (exactly $59) Hanging Draw
HyperLeap $9.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Tristan Landry
Drift Off $2.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Riyadh Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.