Do I ship it?

GamesDestructionDestruction + RPG

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Destruction RPG?

Destruction + RPG

Of 40 developers who shipped a Destruction RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 92 more are announced, ×3.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $720, ×1.1 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $120; 1 in 20 cleared $2.5M, ×4123 the market median. Revenue is up 35% on the market; 92 games are announced against 24 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 35% on the market, 92 announced, ×3.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Destruction + RPG
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 40
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $24k → $899 → $3.8k → $2.9k → $958 → $2.4k → $716 (still earning) → $420 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Destruction + RPG: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 40
Bottom 30% $119 (exactly $119)
Median $716 (exactly $716)
Top 25% $5.8k (exactly $5,846)
Top 5% $2.6M (exactly $2,589,464)
Developers, 2 yr 40
Released games 131
Announced 92
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 35% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Destruction
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
RPG
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Destruction, RPG; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, Hack and Slash
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 11,376 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $720, 1 in 4 over $5.8k, 1 in 20 over $2.5M.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. All of the 20 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 92 games are announced against 24 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Destruction with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Space SimFair14 devs · median $3.7k · 22 announced
  2. + ModernFair26 devs · median $1.6k · 28 announced
  3. + God GameFair19 devs · median $899 · 20 announced
  4. + Hidden ObjectFair9 devs · median $719 · 14 announced
  5. + Hack and SlashPoor odds19 devs · median $43k · 57 announced
  6. + HistoricalPoor odds15 devs · median $26k · 22 announced
  7. + CapitalismPoor odds17 devs · median $15k · 46 announced
  8. + Online Co-OpPoor odds37 devs · median $13k · 102 announced
  9. + Co-opPoor odds50 devs · median $11k · 113 announced
  10. + Automobile SimPoor odds22 devs · median $9.0k · 44 announced
  11. + ManagementPoor odds36 devs · median $6.1k · 129 announced
  12. + AutomationPoor odds22 devs · median $6.0k · 46 announced

All 139 pairs on the Destruction page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Just Cause™ 3 older $19.99 104,140 85% 3.1M $62M (exactly $62,452,758) Avalanche Studios
Shin Megami Tensei V: Vengeance older $59.99 7,858 91% 236k $14M (exactly $14,142,043) ATLUS
Flashing Lights - Police, Firefighting, Emergency Services (EMS) Simulator older $24.99 16,166 80% 485k $12M (exactly $12,119,650) Nils Jakrins
Diablo II: Resurrected – Infernal Edition $39.99 5,855 86% 176k $7.0M (exactly $7,024,244) Blizzard Entertainment, Inc.
DYSMANTLE older $19.99 11,022 91% 331k $6.6M (exactly $6,609,893) 10tons Ltd
Starpoint Gemini 2 older $34.99 3,021 70% 91k $3.2M (exactly $3,171,144) Little Green Men Games
Everwind · EA $24.99 3,454 81% 104k $2.6M (exactly $2,589,464) Enjoy Studio S.A.
Warhammer 40,000: Inquisitor - Prophecy older $24.99 2,884 79% 87k $2.2M (exactly $2,162,135) NeocoreGames
9 Days older $14.99 2,198 72% 66k $988k (exactly $988,441) MVR
Landlord's Super older $19.99 1,442 80% 43k $865k (exactly $864,767) Minskworks
Lay of the Land $19.99 1,190 79% 36k $714k (exactly $713,643) Southern Cross Interactive
Castle Craft $19.99 480 82% 14k $288k (exactly $287,856) Twin Earth
Masks of the Void: Origins $14.99 108 97% 3.2k $49k (exactly $48,568) ROLLDBOX GAMES
Munch $16.66 96 60% 2.9k $48k (exactly $47,981) Mac n Cheese Games
Sera's Adventure -Cave of Destruction- $18.99 76 53% 2.3k $43k (exactly $43,297) 渡里laboratory
Voxile · EA $17.99 78 69% 2.3k $42k (exactly $42,097) VoxRay Games, Inc.
Dungeons & Drivers $9.99 26 84% 780 $7.8k (exactly $7,792) Digital Synapsis
War of Wheels · EA $14.99 13 100% 390 $5.8k (exactly $5,846) Dreambits Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.