Do I ship it?

GamesDestructionDestruction + Nature

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Nature Destruction game?

Destruction + Nature

Of 29 developers who shipped a Nature Destruction game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 50 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $420 in the last 2 years and $360 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 6 / 10 build. 17 developers shipped in the last year and 50 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 200% on the market, 50 announced, ×2.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Destruction + Nature
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 29
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $269 → $239 → $359 → $897 → $2.0k → $599 (still earning) → $300 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Destruction + Nature: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 29
Bottom 30% $239 (exactly $239)
Median $418 (exactly $418)
Top 25% $2.7k (exactly $2,726)
Top 5% $1.3M (exactly $1,322,568)
Developers, 2 yr 29
Released games 74
Announced 50
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 200% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 18%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Destruction
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Nature
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Destruction; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Physics, Exploration, Simulation
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Realistic, Relaxing
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 76% positive over 16,808 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $240, median $420, 1 in 4 over $2.7k, 1 in 20 over $1.3M.

3 in 10 developers made under $240. 8 in 10 of the 17 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 50 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Destruction with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Space SimFair14 devs · median $3.7k · 22 announced
  2. + ModernFair26 devs · median $1.6k · 28 announced
  3. + God GameFair19 devs · median $899 · 20 announced
  4. + Hidden ObjectFair9 devs · median $719 · 14 announced
  5. + Hack and SlashPoor odds19 devs · median $43k · 57 announced
  6. + HistoricalPoor odds15 devs · median $26k · 22 announced
  7. + CapitalismPoor odds17 devs · median $15k · 46 announced
  8. + Online Co-OpPoor odds37 devs · median $13k · 102 announced
  9. + Co-opPoor odds50 devs · median $11k · 113 announced
  10. + Automobile SimPoor odds22 devs · median $9.0k · 44 announced
  11. + ManagementPoor odds36 devs · median $6.1k · 129 announced
  12. + AutomationPoor odds22 devs · median $6.0k · 46 announced

All 139 pairs on the Destruction page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
RoadCraft $39.99 13,527 74% 406k $16M (exactly $16,228,342) Saber Interactive
OUTBRK · EA older $34.99 3,221 82% 97k $3.4M (exactly $3,381,084) Sublime
Funnel Runners · EA $14.99 2,941 83% 88k $1.3M (exactly $1,322,568) Supernova Studios LLC
Spirit Island older $24.99 1,545 91% 46k $1.2M (exactly $1,158,286) Handelabra Games Inc.
Tornado: Research and Rescue · EA older $12.99 356 85% 11k $139k (exactly $138,733) Sam Kennedy
Terra Firma 2 · EA $19.99 200 92% 6.0k $120k (exactly $119,940) Working as Intended
LumbearJack older $12.99 270 95% 8.1k $105k (exactly $105,219) FinalBoss Games
VERGE:Lost chapter older $0.99 2,874 52% 86k $85k (exactly $85,358) GDNomaD
Turbo Chicken Simulator · EA older $14.99 41 87% 1.2k $18k (exactly $18,438) Balkanware
Dungeon Crusher Kiritan · EA older $11.99 35 91% 1.1k $13k (exactly $12,590) Akamurasaki Games
Backyard Digger $7.99 44 86% 1.3k $11k (exactly $10,547) Milord
A Game About Breaking Pots $5.99 27 100% 810 $4.9k (exactly $4,852) Glenn Verheij
Grind Rush $15.99 9 66% 270 $4.3k (exactly $4,317) AND GEAR
Breakout Season $4.99 19 84% 570 $2.8k (exactly $2,844) Kakaos Collective
Chopping Together🌲 $6.99 13 69% 390 $2.7k (exactly $2,726) Limey Studio
SUBMERSIBLE $8.99 10 80% 300 $2.7k (exactly $2,697) CJB Games
Scurry $4.99 18 94% 540 $2.7k (exactly $2,695) Identical Forest

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.