Do I ship it?

GamesDestructionDestruction + Medieval

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Medieval Destruction game?

Destruction + Medieval

Only 17 developers shipped a Medieval Destruction game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Castle Craft, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 57 more are announced, ×4.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.9k, ×7.7 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $420; 1 in 20 cleared $280k, ×458 the market median. Revenue is down 50% on the market; 57 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 7.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 50% on the market, 57 announced, ×4.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Destruction + Medieval
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 17
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $360 → $597 → $756 → $7.8k → $4.9k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Destruction + Medieval: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 17
Bottom 30% $420 (exactly $420)
Median $4.9k (exactly $4,852)
Top 25% $9.0k (exactly $8,992)
Top 5% $288k (exactly $287,856)
Developers, 2 yr 17
Released games 60
Announced 57
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 50% on the market, supply 225% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 20%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Destruction
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Medieval
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Destruction; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Building, Action, Base Building
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 1,199 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $420, median $4.9k, 1 in 4 over $8.9k, 1 in 20 over $280k.

3 in 10 developers made under $420. 9 in 10 of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 57 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Destruction with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Space SimFair14 devs · median $3.7k · 22 announced
  2. + ModernFair26 devs · median $1.6k · 28 announced
  3. + God GameFair19 devs · median $899 · 20 announced
  4. + Hidden ObjectFair9 devs · median $719 · 14 announced
  5. + Hack and SlashPoor odds19 devs · median $43k · 57 announced
  6. + HistoricalPoor odds15 devs · median $26k · 22 announced
  7. + CapitalismPoor odds17 devs · median $15k · 46 announced
  8. + Online Co-OpPoor odds37 devs · median $13k · 102 announced
  9. + Co-opPoor odds50 devs · median $11k · 113 announced
  10. + Automobile SimPoor odds22 devs · median $9.0k · 44 announced
  11. + ManagementPoor odds36 devs · median $6.1k · 129 announced
  12. + AutomationPoor odds22 devs · median $6.0k · 46 announced

All 139 pairs on the Destruction page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
WorldBox - God Simulator · EA older $19.99 51,071 95% 1.5M $31M (exactly $30,627,279) Maxim Karpenko
Besiege older $14.99 48,045 95% 1.4M $22M (exactly $21,605,836) Spiderling Studios
Medieval Engineers older $9.99 5,701 51% 171k $1.7M (exactly $1,708,590) Keen Software House
Rock of Ages 2: Bigger & Boulder™ older $14.99 2,792 90% 84k $1.3M (exactly $1,255,562) ACE Team
Rock of Ages older $9.99 3,364 92% 101k $1.0M (exactly $1,008,191) ACE Team
Ruinarch older $24.99 1,336 62% 40k $1.0M (exactly $1,001,599) Maccima Games LLC
CastleStorm older $9.99 1,262 89% 38k $378k (exactly $378,221) Zen Studios
Castle Craft $19.99 480 82% 14k $288k (exactly $287,856) Twin Earth
Ancient Wars: Sparta Definitive Edition · EA older $19.99 453 74% 14k $272k (exactly $271,664) JOTASOFT STUDIOS
DYSPLACED · EA $24.99 296 87% 8.9k $222k (exactly $221,911) 10tons Ltd
Medieval Machines Builder $11.99 99 77% 3.0k $36k (exactly $35,610) FreeMind S.A., Solverto
Chest Buster $4.99 159 92% 4.8k $24k (exactly $23,802) D-Pad
Robin Hood: Sherwood Defenders $11.99 25 44% 750 $9.0k (exactly $8,992) MeanAstronauts
Reyher Austerich's Garden worlds Adventure $4.99 60 90% 1.8k $9.0k (exactly $8,982) MegaDragonGirls Project
Dungeons & Drivers $9.99 26 84% 780 $7.8k (exactly $7,792) Digital Synapsis
War of Wheels · EA $14.99 13 100% 390 $5.8k (exactly $5,846) Dreambits Studio
A Game About Breaking Pots $5.99 27 100% 810 $4.9k (exactly $4,852) Glenn Verheij
Unfair Rampage: Knightfall $5.99 14 85% 420 $2.5k (exactly $2,516) Imphenzia

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.