Do I ship it?

GamesDestructionDestruction + Magic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Magic Destruction game?

Destruction + Magic

Of 22 developers who shipped a Magic Destruction game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 68 more are announced, ×4.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $960, ×1.5 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240; 1 in 20 cleared $280k, ×458 the market median. Revenue is up 260% on the market; 68 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.5 times the market baseline, revenue up 260% on the market, 68 announced, ×4.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Destruction + Magic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 22
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $8.2k → $1.8k → $2.4k → $958 → $240 → $5.4k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Destruction + Magic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 22
Bottom 30% $240 (exactly $240)
Median $958 (exactly $958)
Top 25% $13k (exactly $13,250)
Top 5% $288k (exactly $287,856)
Developers, 2 yr 22
Released games 73
Announced 68
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 260% on the market, supply 75% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 18%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Destruction
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Magic
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Destruction; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Base Building, Building
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 2,345 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $240, median $960, 1 in 4 over $13k, 1 in 20 over $280k.

3 in 10 developers made under $240. All of the 12 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 68 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Destruction with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Space SimFair14 devs · median $3.7k · 22 announced
  2. + ModernFair26 devs · median $1.6k · 28 announced
  3. + God GameFair19 devs · median $899 · 20 announced
  4. + Hidden ObjectFair9 devs · median $719 · 14 announced
  5. + Hack and SlashPoor odds19 devs · median $43k · 57 announced
  6. + HistoricalPoor odds15 devs · median $26k · 22 announced
  7. + CapitalismPoor odds17 devs · median $15k · 46 announced
  8. + Online Co-OpPoor odds37 devs · median $13k · 102 announced
  9. + Co-opPoor odds50 devs · median $11k · 113 announced
  10. + Automobile SimPoor odds22 devs · median $9.0k · 44 announced
  11. + ManagementPoor odds36 devs · median $6.1k · 129 announced
  12. + AutomationPoor odds22 devs · median $6.0k · 46 announced

All 139 pairs on the Destruction page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Spirit Island older $24.99 1,545 91% 46k $1.2M (exactly $1,158,286) Handelabra Games Inc.
9 Days older $14.99 2,198 72% 66k $988k (exactly $988,441) MVR
Conan Unconquered older $19.99 1,203 70% 36k $721k (exactly $721,439) Petroglyph
Lay of the Land $19.99 1,190 79% 36k $714k (exactly $713,643) Southern Cross Interactive
我在地球修仙有系统 older $14.99 959 70% 29k $431k (exactly $431,262) 红星
Fictorum older $9.99 1,034 78% 31k $310k (exactly $309,890) Scraping Bottom Games
Demigod older $9.99 1,011 75% 30k $303k (exactly $302,997) Gas Powered Games
Castle Craft $19.99 480 82% 14k $288k (exactly $287,856) Twin Earth
DYSPLACED · EA $24.99 296 87% 8.9k $222k (exactly $221,911) 10tons Ltd
PROJEKT GODHAND $15.80 158 96% 4.7k $75k (exactly $74,892) Anarch Entertainment
Masks of the Void: Origins $14.99 108 97% 3.2k $49k (exactly $48,568) ROLLDBOX GAMES
ARKOS 2 $12.99 34 91% 1.0k $13k (exactly $13,250) RetroSouls
Hail the Devourer $4.99 36 66% 1.1k $5.4k (exactly $5,389) Anchorhead Games
Spire Blast $6.99 17 100% 510 $3.6k (exactly $3,565) Orbital Knight
Bat Blast! $7.99 10 100% 300 $2.4k (exactly $2,397) Cyan Sundae
Deer Hero $3.99 16 93% 480 $1.9k (exactly $1,915) Nyoro

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.