Do I ship it?

GamesDestructionDestruction + Gun Customization

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Gun Customization Destruction game?

Destruction + Gun Customization

Only 12 developers shipped a Gun Customization Destruction game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Hot Dogs, Horseshoes & Hand Grenades, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 47 more are announced, ×7.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.5k, ×7.1 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.2k; 1 in 20 cleared $13M, ×21748 the market median. Revenue is up 5910% on the market; 47 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 7.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 5910% on the market, 47 announced, ×7.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Destruction + Gun Customization
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 12
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.8k → $899 → $1.6k → $1.5k → $55k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Destruction + Gun Customization: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 12
Bottom 30% $1.2k (exactly $1,169)
Median $4.5k (exactly $4,485)
Top 25% $1.6M (exactly $1,606,346)
Top 5% $14M (exactly $13,657,568)
Developers, 2 yr 12
Released games 46
Announced 47
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 5910% on the market, supply 15% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Destruction
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Gun Customization
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Destruction, Gun Customization
Price point
$6.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 95% positive over 27,396 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.2k, median $4.5k, 1 in 4 over $1.6M, 1 in 20 over $13M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.2k. 9 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 47 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year, ×7.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Destruction with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Space SimFair14 devs · median $3.7k · 22 announced
  2. + ModernFair26 devs · median $1.6k · 28 announced
  3. + God GameFair19 devs · median $899 · 20 announced
  4. + Hidden ObjectFair9 devs · median $719 · 14 announced
  5. + Hack and SlashPoor odds19 devs · median $43k · 57 announced
  6. + HistoricalPoor odds15 devs · median $26k · 22 announced
  7. + CapitalismPoor odds17 devs · median $15k · 46 announced
  8. + Online Co-OpPoor odds37 devs · median $13k · 102 announced
  9. + Co-opPoor odds50 devs · median $11k · 113 announced
  10. + Automobile SimPoor odds22 devs · median $9.0k · 44 announced
  11. + ManagementPoor odds36 devs · median $6.1k · 129 announced
  12. + AutomationPoor odds22 devs · median $6.0k · 46 announced

All 139 pairs on the Destruction page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
BattleBit Remastered · EA older $14.99 127,680 82% 3.8M $57M (exactly $57,417,696) SgtOkiDoki, Vilaskis, TheLiquidHorse
Brick Rigs older $19.99 53,749 95% 1.6M $32M (exactly $32,233,275) Fluppisoft GmbH
Hot Dogs, Horseshoes & Hand Grenades $19.99 22,774 97% 683k $14M (exactly $13,657,568) RUST LTD.
Friends vs Friends older $9.99 10,860 83% 326k $3.3M (exactly $3,254,742) Brainwash Gang
VOID/BREAKER · EA $29.99 2,506 91% 75k $2.3M (exactly $2,254,648) Stubby Games
Forefront $27.99 1,913 84% 57k $1.6M (exactly $1,606,346) Triangle Factory
Ghostbusters: The Video Game Remastered older $24.99 2,069 90% 62k $1.6M (exactly $1,551,129) Saber Interactive
Vox Machinae older $29.99 1,177 87% 35k $1.1M (exactly $1,058,947) Space Bullet Dynamics Corporation
BREAK ARTS II older $14.99 662 74% 20k $298k (exactly $297,701) MercuryStudio
Aggressor · EA older $19.99 172 61% 5.2k $103k (exactly $103,148) Flashpoint Studios
Territory Control 2 · EA $19.99 92 77% 2.8k $55k (exactly $55,172) TFlippy, Knorrepot
Star Mining Co. $8.99 29 82% 870 $7.8k (exactly $7,821) Barney Whiteman
Critical Fishing $2.99 50 96% 1.5k $4.5k (exactly $4,485) lazygun
Periodicity - Hats and scars $4.99 11 90% 330 $1.6k (exactly $1,647) PunPun.Studio
Turbotz Testing 20XX $4.99 10 100% 300 $1.5k (exactly $1,497) Zed-ex
Robot Fury: Mech Combat Simulator · EA $12.99 3 0% 90 $1.2k (exactly $1,169) Hard Shark Games
Last Stronghold $3.99 8 62% 240 $958 (exactly $958) skR1me

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.