Do I ship it?

GamesDestructionDestruction + Flight

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Destruction Flight game?

Destruction + Flight

Of 33 developers who shipped a Destruction Flight game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 49 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $480, ×0.8 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180; 1 in 20 cleared $760k, ×1220 the market median. Revenue is up 20% on the market; 49 games are announced against 18 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 20% on the market, 49 announced, ×2.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Destruction + Flight
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 33
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $748 → $7.2k → $599 → $179 → $807 → $1.2k → $479 (still earning) → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Destruction + Flight: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 33
Bottom 30% $179 (exactly $179)
Median $479 (exactly $479)
Top 25% $5.6k (exactly $5,605)
Top 5% $766k (exactly $766,289)
Developers, 2 yr 33
Released games 103
Announced 49
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 20% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Destruction
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Flight
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Destruction, Flight; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Exploration, Open World
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Realistic
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 93% positive over 11,750 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $480, 1 in 4 over $5.6k, 1 in 20 over $760k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 8 in 10 of the 15 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 49 games are announced against 18 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Destruction with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Space SimFair14 devs · median $3.7k · 22 announced
  2. + ModernFair26 devs · median $1.6k · 28 announced
  3. + God GameFair19 devs · median $899 · 20 announced
  4. + Hidden ObjectFair9 devs · median $719 · 14 announced
  5. + Hack and SlashPoor odds19 devs · median $43k · 57 announced
  6. + HistoricalPoor odds15 devs · median $26k · 22 announced
  7. + CapitalismPoor odds17 devs · median $15k · 46 announced
  8. + Online Co-OpPoor odds37 devs · median $13k · 102 announced
  9. + Co-opPoor odds50 devs · median $11k · 113 announced
  10. + Automobile SimPoor odds22 devs · median $9.0k · 44 announced
  11. + ManagementPoor odds36 devs · median $6.1k · 129 announced
  12. + AutomationPoor odds22 devs · median $6.0k · 46 announced

All 139 pairs on the Destruction page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Brick Rigs older $19.99 53,749 95% 1.6M $32M (exactly $32,233,275) Fluppisoft GmbH
Besiege older $14.99 48,045 95% 1.4M $22M (exactly $21,605,836) Spiderling Studios
Starpoint Gemini 2 older $34.99 3,021 70% 91k $3.2M (exactly $3,171,144) Little Green Men Games
Aviassembly · EA $9.99 9,323 96% 280k $2.8M (exactly $2,794,103) Jelle Booij
Megaton Rainfall older $15.99 2,155 71% 65k $1.0M (exactly $1,033,754) Pentadimensional Games, SL
ICBM older $19.99 1,655 91% 50k $993k (exactly $992,503) SoftWarWare, K-Project
Vietnam War · EA $14.99 1,704 84% 51k $766k (exactly $766,289) Thorium Game Lab
Disassembly 3D older $29.99 309 81% 9.3k $278k (exactly $278,007) Khor Chin Heong
Disassembly VR older $29.99 157 59% 4.7k $141k (exactly $141,253) Khor Chin Heong
Thunder Wolves older $9.99 446 84% 13k $134k (exactly $133,666) Most Wanted Entertainment
BeastLink · EA $19.99 187 45% 5.6k $112k (exactly $112,144) Grove Street Games
TOP DOG $9.99 263 88% 7.9k $79k (exactly $78,821) MorfeoDev
Deep Space Exploitation $8.99 131 96% 3.9k $35k (exactly $35,331) JuhrJuhr
POLARIS™ $19.99 32 59% 960 $19k (exactly $19,190) POLARIS™ Team, Variable State
Cosmic Miners · EA $9.99 60 53% 1.8k $18k (exactly $17,982) bitByte Games
Highway Drifter: Hajwala Simulator $9.99 30 86% 900 $9.0k (exactly $8,991) Mad Hook
AURORA FLIGHT (オーロラ・フライト) $10.99 17 41% 510 $5.6k (exactly $5,605) すたじおわかる
Under Destruction · EA $18.99 3 66% 90 $1.7k (exactly $1,709) Quantum Dynamics

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.