Do I ship it?

GamesTacticalTactical + Deckbuilding

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Deckbuilding Tactical game?

Tactical + Deckbuilding

Of 279 developers who shipped a Deckbuilding Tactical game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 486 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.7k, ×4.3 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $420; 1 in 20 cleared $640k, ×1022 the market median. Revenue is down 50% on the market; 486 games are announced against 172 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 50% on the market, 486 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Tactical + Deckbuilding
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 279
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.5k → $7.2k → $3.3k → $6.3k → $6.1k → $5.0k → $2.2k (still earning) → $360 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Tactical + Deckbuilding: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 279
Bottom 30% $419 (exactly $419)
Median $2.7k (exactly $2,698)
Top 25% $29k (exactly $28,781)
Top 5% $642k (exactly $641,743)
Developers, 2 yr 279
Released games 540
Announced 486
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 50% on the market, supply 55% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Tactical
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Deckbuilding
effort 3 / 10 · high · card pools and run logic

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Tactical, Deckbuilding; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Roguelike, Card Game
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 74% positive over 79,222 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $420, median $2.7k, 1 in 4 over $28k, 1 in 20 over $640k.

3 in 10 developers made under $420. 8 in 10 of the 125 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 486 games are announced against 172 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Tactical with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Football (American)Strong odds12 devs · median $5.8k · 8 announced
  2. + Mystery DungeonStrong odds20 devs · median $2.5k · 15 announced
  3. + Dating SimFair13 devs · median $11k · 9 announced
  4. + 6DOFFair14 devs · median $2.4k · 19 announced
  5. + Word GameFair23 devs · median $1.8k · 12 announced
  6. + TypingFair16 devs · median $1.2k · 9 announced
  7. + DwarvesFair7 devs · median $1.0k · 10 announced
  8. + Traditional RoguelikeFair38 devs · median $987 · 57 announced
  9. + Dynamic NarrationFair13 devs · median $899 · 16 announced
  10. + Farming SimFair12 devs · median $897 · 10 announced
  11. + SolitaireFair25 devs · median $479 · 22 announced
  12. + LGBTQ+Fair20 devs · median $479 · 21 announced

All 226 pairs on the Tactical page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Broken Arrow $49.99 25,924 55% 778k $39M (exactly $38,878,223) Steel Balalaika
Marvel's Midnight Suns older $59.99 17,060 82% 512k $31M (exactly $30,702,882) Firaxis Games
INAZUMA ELEVEN: Victory Road $69.99 11,180 88% 335k $23M (exactly $23,474,646) LEVEL5 Inc.
Loop Hero older $14.99 33,816 92% 1.0M $15M (exactly $15,207,055) Four Quarters
Gloomhaven older $34.99 13,628 82% 409k $14M (exactly $14,305,312) Flaming Fowl Studios, Saber Interactive
The Bazaar $19.99 14,931 70% 448k $9.0M (exactly $8,954,121) Tempo
Across the Obelisk older $19.99 10,689 80% 321k $6.4M (exactly $6,410,193) Dreamsite Games
The King is Watching $14.99 9,006 88% 270k $4.0M (exactly $4,049,998) Hypnohead
Gordian Quest older $19.99 5,259 88% 158k $3.2M (exactly $3,153,822) Mixed Realms Pte Ltd, Swag Soft Holding… (Mixed Realms Pte Ltd, Swag Soft Holdings Pte Ltd)
Fights in Tight Spaces older $24.99 3,545 90% 106k $2.7M (exactly $2,657,686) Ground Shatter
Emberward $19.99 3,775 96% 113k $2.3M (exactly $2,263,868) Refic Games
Sol Cesto $13.99 4,838 91% 145k $2.0M (exactly $2,030,509) Tambouille, Géraud Zucchini, Chariospir… (Tambouille, Géraud Zucchini, Chariospirale)
Cross Blitz $22.99 1,557 74% 47k $1.1M (exactly $1,073,863) Tako Boy Studios LLC
Commander Quest $11.99 2,804 74% 84k $1.0M (exactly $1,008,599) Flyway Games, Inc.
Oaken Tower · EA $9.99 3,024 89% 91k $906k (exactly $906,293) Bocary Studios
LONESTAR $12.99 2,183 90% 65k $851k (exactly $850,715) Math Tide

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.