Do I ship it?

GamesTacticalTactical + Crime

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Crime Tactical game?

Tactical + Crime

Of 24 developers who shipped a Crime Tactical game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 73 more are announced, ×6.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $720, ×1.1 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $540; 1 in 20 cleared $470k, ×752 the market median. Revenue is up 65% on the market; 73 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 65% on the market, 73 announced, ×6.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Tactical + Crime
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 24
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.2k → $44M → $2.2k → $17k → $599 → $718 → $127k (still earning) → $480 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Tactical + Crime: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 24
Bottom 30% $538 (exactly $538)
Median $718 (exactly $718)
Top 25% $72k (exactly $71,928)
Top 5% $473k (exactly $472,564)
Developers, 2 yr 24
Released games 96
Announced 73
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 65% on the market, supply 15% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Tactical
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Crime
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Tactical; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Combat, Shooter
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $34.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, 3D, Realistic
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $34.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 80% positive over 4,416 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $540, median $720, 1 in 4 over $71k, 1 in 20 over $470k.

3 in 10 developers made under $540. 8 in 10 of the 16 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 73 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year, ×6.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Tactical with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Football (American)Strong odds12 devs · median $5.8k · 8 announced
  2. + Mystery DungeonStrong odds20 devs · median $2.5k · 15 announced
  3. + Dating SimFair13 devs · median $11k · 9 announced
  4. + 6DOFFair14 devs · median $2.4k · 19 announced
  5. + Word GameFair23 devs · median $1.8k · 12 announced
  6. + TypingFair16 devs · median $1.2k · 9 announced
  7. + DwarvesFair7 devs · median $1.0k · 10 announced
  8. + Traditional RoguelikeFair38 devs · median $987 · 57 announced
  9. + Dynamic NarrationFair13 devs · median $899 · 16 announced
  10. + Farming SimFair12 devs · median $897 · 10 announced
  11. + SolitaireFair25 devs · median $479 · 22 announced
  12. + LGBTQ+Fair20 devs · median $479 · 21 announced

All 226 pairs on the Tactical page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Ready or Not older $49.99 265,219 79% 8.0M $398M (exactly $397,748,934) VOID Interactive
PAYDAY 2 older $9.99 445,531 89% 13M $134M (exactly $133,525,641) OVERKILL - a Starbreeze Studio., Sidetr… (OVERKILL - a Starbreeze Studio., Sidetrack Games)
PAYDAY 3 older $29.99 49,305 45% 1.5M $44M (exactly $44,359,708) Starbreeze Studios
Hitman: Absolution™ older $19.99 49,637 93% 1.5M $30M (exactly $29,767,309) Io-Interactive A/S
PAYDAY™ The Heist older $9.99 21,870 92% 656k $6.6M (exactly $6,554,439) OVERKILL - a Starbreeze Studio.
911 Operator older $14.99 14,416 89% 432k $6.5M (exactly $6,482,875) Jutsu Games
Empire of Sin older $39.99 4,544 49% 136k $5.5M (exactly $5,451,437) Romero Games
Crime Boss: Rockay City older $19.99 8,553 68% 257k $5.1M (exactly $5,129,234) INGAME STUDIOS
Battlefield™ Hardline older $39.99 4,000 68% 120k $4.8M (exactly $4,798,800) DICE
Police Stories older $19.99 7,893 85% 237k $4.7M (exactly $4,733,432) HypeTrain Digital
Psycho Patrol R · EA $39.99 2,090 88% 63k $2.5M (exactly $2,507,373) Consumer Softproducts
Alpha Response · EA $19.99 788 77% 24k $473k (exactly $472,564) Ultimo Ratio Games
SWAT Commander · EA $19.99 665 77% 20k $399k (exactly $398,800) Red Mountain Games, Ritual Interactive
Responding · EA $24.99 409 45% 12k $307k (exactly $306,627) Visionary Studios
PROHIBEAST $34.99 121 57% 3.6k $127k (exactly $127,014) SUPER AC
The Fable: Manga Build Roguelike $9.99 240 91% 7.2k $72k (exactly $71,928) MONO ENTERTAINMENT
Pirate Hunter $6.99 80 87% 2.4k $17k (exactly $16,776) DIOsoft
corpo/ghost $14.99 6 100% 180 $2.7k (exactly $2,698) Interleaved Systems
Bratki $5.99 11 72% 330 $2.0k (exactly $1,977) VZLab
PolyCrime · EA $9.99 6 66% 180 $1.8k (exactly $1,798) FoxGameDev

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.