Do I ship it?

GamesEconomyEconomy + Crime

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Crime Economy game?

Economy + Crime

Of 34 developers who shipped a Crime Economy game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 116 more are announced, ×4.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.6k, ×2.6 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $480k, ×780 the market median. Revenue is down 95% on the market; 116 games are announced against 27 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 95% on the market, 116 announced, ×4.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Economy + Crime
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 34
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $657 → $22k → $36k → $1.8k → $5.7k (still earning) → $359 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Economy + Crime: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 34
Bottom 30% $359 (exactly $359)
Median $1.6k (exactly $1,617)
Top 25% $31k (exactly $31,479)
Top 5% $490k (exactly $489,942)
Developers, 2 yr 34
Released games 66
Announced 116
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 95% on the market, supply 285% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Economy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Crime
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Economy; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Management, Sandbox
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 4,027 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $1.6k, 1 in 4 over $31k, 1 in 20 over $480k.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 6 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 116 games are announced against 27 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Economy with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorFair116 devs · median $22k · 125 announced
  2. + Football (Soccer)Fair21 devs · median $6.8k · 29 announced
  3. + ScienceFair39 devs · median $5.9k · 39 announced
  4. + MiningFair116 devs · median $5.0k · 173 announced
  5. + LootFair74 devs · median $4.6k · 114 announced
  6. + CollectathonFair125 devs · median $3.8k · 151 announced
  7. + God GameFair47 devs · median $2.8k · 58 announced
  8. + Auto BattlerFair59 devs · median $2.4k · 79 announced
  9. + IdlerFair441 devs · median $2.3k · 589 announced
  10. + IncrementalFair408 devs · median $2.2k · 612 announced
  11. + ArcadeFair199 devs · median $2.1k · 285 announced
  12. + Strategy RPGFair95 devs · median $2.0k · 128 announced

All 161 pairs on the Economy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Definitely Not Fried Chicken older $24.99 2,161 72% 65k $1.6M (exactly $1,620,102) Dope Games
Ravenous Devils older $4.99 9,477 92% 284k $1.4M (exactly $1,418,707) Bad Vices Games
City of Gangsters older $29.99 1,332 73% 40k $1.2M (exactly $1,198,400) SomaSim
Basement older $19.99 1,684 76% 51k $1.0M (exactly $1,009,895) Halfbus
Plutocracy · EA older $24.99 1,305 79% 39k $978k (exactly $978,358) Redwood
Weedcraft Inc older $19.99 1,549 79% 46k $929k (exactly $928,935) Vile Monarch
Used Cars Simulator · EA $19.99 1,147 79% 34k $688k (exactly $687,856) DreamWay Games
Shadows of Forbidden Gods older $19.99 1,046 91% 31k $627k (exactly $627,286) Bobby Two Hands
Drug Lord Tycoon · EA older $9.99 1,671 83% 50k $501k (exactly $500,799) Duhndal
Saloon Simulator · EA $18.99 860 89% 26k $490k (exactly $489,942) Glivi Games S.A.
Space Warlord Baby Trading Simulator $19.99 513 91% 15k $308k (exactly $307,646) Strange Scaffold
The Boss Gangster: Criminal Empire · EA $18.99 385 81% 12k $219k (exactly $219,334) BEF GAMES
Laundering Simulator - Clean Cash and Laundry $12.99 399 81% 12k $155k (exactly $155,490) Ritual Interactive
I Know a Guy: Shady Life Simulator · EA $12.99 398 90% 12k $155k (exactly $155,101) Bunch'o'Nerds
Crime Shop Simulator: A Prison Boss Game $19.99 157 85% 4.7k $94k (exactly $94,153) TREBUCHET
My Drug Cartel · EA $24.99 48 50% 1.4k $36k (exactly $35,986) Gigicom
Rich List: The Order · EA $14.99 70 90% 2.1k $31k (exactly $31,479) YUANYE TECH
Speakeasy Simulator $11.99 50 88% 1.5k $18k (exactly $17,985) Arcana Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.