Do I ship it?

GamesDestructionDestruction + Combat

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Combat Destruction game?

Destruction + Combat

Of 141 developers who shipped a Combat Destruction game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 351 more are announced, ×4.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $960, ×1.5 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $850k, ×1356 the market median. Revenue is down 30% on the market; 351 games are announced against 81 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 30% on the market, 351 announced, ×4.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Destruction + Combat
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 141
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.8k → $896 → $479 → $1.1k → $1.2k → $1.2k → $719 (still earning) → $239 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Destruction + Combat: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 141
Bottom 30% $300 (exactly $300)
Median $958 (exactly $958)
Top 25% $10k (exactly $10,190)
Top 5% $852k (exactly $851,659)
Developers, 2 yr 141
Released games 405
Announced 351
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 30% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Destruction
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Combat
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Destruction, Combat; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Shooter, Physics
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 67% positive over 368,274 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $960, 1 in 4 over $10k, 1 in 20 over $850k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 74 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 351 games are announced against 81 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Destruction with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Space SimFair14 devs · median $3.7k · 22 announced
  2. + ModernFair26 devs · median $1.6k · 28 announced
  3. + God GameFair19 devs · median $899 · 20 announced
  4. + Hidden ObjectFair9 devs · median $719 · 14 announced
  5. + Hack and SlashPoor odds19 devs · median $43k · 57 announced
  6. + HistoricalPoor odds15 devs · median $26k · 22 announced
  7. + CapitalismPoor odds17 devs · median $15k · 46 announced
  8. + Online Co-OpPoor odds37 devs · median $13k · 102 announced
  9. + Co-opPoor odds50 devs · median $11k · 113 announced
  10. + Automobile SimPoor odds22 devs · median $9.0k · 44 announced
  11. + ManagementPoor odds36 devs · median $6.1k · 129 announced
  12. + AutomationPoor odds22 devs · median $6.0k · 46 announced

All 139 pairs on the Destruction page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Battlefield™ 6 $69.99 295,442 63% 8.9M $620M (exactly $620,339,567) Battlefield Studios
Battlefield™ 2042 older $59.99 260,308 49% 7.8M $468M (exactly $468,476,308) DICE
Battlefield™ V older $49.99 236,709 70% 7.1M $355M (exactly $354,992,487) DICE
WARDOGS · EA $39.99 58,250 81% 1.7M $70M (exactly $69,882,525) BULKHEAD
BattleBit Remastered · EA older $14.99 127,680 82% 3.8M $57M (exactly $57,417,696) SgtOkiDoki, Vilaskis, TheLiquidHorse
Trepang2 older $39.99 15,774 93% 473k $19M (exactly $18,924,068) Trepang Studios
MechWarrior 5: Mercenaries older $29.99 13,347 84% 400k $12M (exactly $12,008,296) Piranha Games Inc.
Stranded: Alien Dawn older $34.99 9,715 84% 291k $10M (exactly $10,197,836) Haemimont Games
Warhammer Age of Sigmar: Realms of Ruin older $59.99 1,867 55% 56k $3.4M (exactly $3,360,040) Frontier Developments
Friends vs Friends older $9.99 10,860 83% 326k $3.3M (exactly $3,254,742) Brainwash Gang
Everwind · EA $24.99 3,454 81% 104k $2.6M (exactly $2,589,464) Enjoy Studio S.A.
VOID/BREAKER · EA $29.99 2,506 91% 75k $2.3M (exactly $2,254,648) Stubby Games
Call to Arms: Panzer Elite · EA $29.99 1,927 69% 58k $1.7M (exactly $1,733,722) Digitalmindsoft
Forefront $27.99 1,913 84% 57k $1.6M (exactly $1,606,346) Triangle Factory
Carmageddon: Rogue Shift $39.99 752 62% 23k $902k (exactly $902,174) 34BigThings srl
The Scouring · EA $24.99 1,136 88% 34k $852k (exactly $851,659) Orc Group
Vietnam War · EA $14.99 1,704 84% 51k $766k (exactly $766,289) Thorium Game Lab
Lay of the Land $19.99 1,190 79% 36k $714k (exactly $713,643) Southern Cross Interactive

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.