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Should I ship a Choose Your Own Adventure Roguelike?
Roguelike + Choose Your Own Adventure
Of 70 developers who shipped a Choose Your Own Adventure Roguelike in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 149 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $2.0k, ×4.2 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $120k, ×258 the market median. Revenue is down 10% on the market; 149 games are announced against 45 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $359 (exactly $359) |
|---|---|
| Median | $2.0k (exactly $1,998) |
| Top 25% | $19k (exactly $18,873) |
| Top 5% | $122k (exactly $122,359) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 70 |
| Released games | 182 |
| Announced | 149 |
| Effort | 3 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | High |
| Typical price | $6.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 10% on the market, supply 75% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Roguelike
- effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
- Choose Your Own Adventure
- effort 2 / 10 · high · branching text with light state
What it takes
- Effort
- 3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
- Systems
- Roguelike, Choose Your Own Adventure; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Choices Matter, Adventure
- Price point
- $6.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Story Rich
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.
The top 10 games average 78% positive over 6,577 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $360. 8 in 10 of the 31 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 149 games are announced against 45 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Roguelike with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + JRPGFair
- + 6DOFFair
- + Grand StrategyFair
- + VampiresFair
- + DogsFair
- + Artificial IntelligenceFair
- + SuperheroFair
- + IdlerFair
- + ArcadeFair
- + Walking SimulatorFair
- + 2D PlatformerFair
- + Traditional RoguelikeFair
Comparable games
FTL: Faster Than Light 2012 · $19M 
Griftlands 2021 · $8.1M 
Cultist Simulator 2018 · $6.3M 
Hand of Fate 2015 · $4.8M 
Star Trek: Voyager - Across the Unknown 2026 · $4.4M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | FTL: Faster Than Light | older | $9.99 | 62,763 94% | 1.9M | $19M (exactly $18,810,071) | Subset Games |
| | Griftlands | older | $19.99 | 13,440 93% | 403k | $8.1M (exactly $8,059,968) | Klei Entertainment |
| | Cultist Simulator | older | $19.99 | 10,496 82% | 315k | $6.3M (exactly $6,294,451) | Weather Factory |
| | Hand of Fate | older | $19.99 | 8,009 89% | 240k | $4.8M (exactly $4,802,997) | Defiant Development |
| | Star Trek: Voyager - Across the Unknown | $34.99 | 4,162 79% | 125k | $4.4M (exactly $4,368,851) | Gamexcite | |
 | 《蜀山：初章》买断版 | older | $24.99 | 5,772 74% | 173k | $4.3M (exactly $4,327,268) | 重楼工作室 |
 | Pixel Piracy | older | $14.99 | 5,713 65% | 171k | $2.6M (exactly $2,569,136) | Vitali Kirpu |
 | CHANGE: A Homeless Survival Experience | older | $19.99 | 2,596 91% | 78k | $1.6M (exactly $1,556,821) | Delve Interactive |
 | 轮回修仙路 | older | $16.99 | 2,945 82% | 88k | $1.5M (exactly $1,501,066) | 烟水寒工作室 |
 | Pathway | older | $15.99 | 1,908 76% | 57k | $915k (exactly $915,268) | Robotality |
 | Guidus Zero | $14.99 | 609 75% | 18k | $274k (exactly $273,867) | izzle | |
 | Frostrain 2 | $10.99 | 374 89% | 11k | $123k (exactly $123,308) | nemonan | |
 | Kromlech | · EA | $29.99 | 136 65% | 4.1k | $122k (exactly $122,359) | Perun Creative |
 | That Time I Got Reincarnated as a Demon Hand | $9.99 | 375 84% | 11k | $112k (exactly $112,388) | Tora Creatives | |
 | LUST & MAGIC ✨ | $14.99 | 159 69% | 4.8k | $72k (exactly $71,502) | Pocket Rocket Studio 🚀 | |
 | Elder Ring | · EA | $9.99 | 230 40% | 6.9k | $69k (exactly $68,931) | Funny as Hell |
 | Stash: A Card Looter | $9.99 | 186 79% | 5.6k | $56k (exactly $55,744) | WheeGaming | |
 | THE GOOD OLD DAYS | $19.99 | 60 85% | 1.8k | $36k (exactly $35,982) | ヨコゴシステムズ | |
 | Slay the Alice | $3.99 | 286 97% | 8.6k | $34k (exactly $34,234) | SUZUMIHARA, BARON DU JUVÉNILE |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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