Do I ship it?

GamesEconomyEconomy + Choose Your Own Adventure

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Choose Your Own Adventure Economy game?

Economy + Choose Your Own Adventure

Of 44 developers who shipped a Choose Your Own Adventure Economy game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 111 more are announced, ×5.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $7.7k, ×12 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.1k; 1 in 20 cleared $4.1M, ×6537 the market median. Revenue is up 80% on the market; 111 games are announced against 22 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 12.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 80% on the market, 111 announced, ×5.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Economy + Choose Your Own Adventure
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 44
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $11k → $592k → $2.7k → $7.7k → $9.2k → $20k → $1.5k (still earning) → $1.3k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Economy + Choose Your Own Adventure: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 44
Bottom 30% $1.1k (exactly $1,077)
Median $7.7k (exactly $7,727)
Top 25% $39k (exactly $38,674)
Top 5% $4.1M (exactly $4,105,331)
Developers, 2 yr 44
Released games 111
Announced 111
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 80% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Economy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Choose Your Own Adventure
effort 2 / 10 · high · branching text with light state

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Economy, Choose Your Own Adventure; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Management, Strategy
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Colorful, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 74% positive over 37,879 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.1k, median $7.7k, 1 in 4 over $38k, 1 in 20 over $4.1M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.1k. 7 in 10 of the 24 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 111 games are announced against 22 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Economy with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorFair116 devs · median $22k · 125 announced
  2. + Football (Soccer)Fair21 devs · median $6.8k · 29 announced
  3. + ScienceFair39 devs · median $5.9k · 39 announced
  4. + MiningFair116 devs · median $5.0k · 173 announced
  5. + LootFair74 devs · median $4.6k · 114 announced
  6. + CollectathonFair125 devs · median $3.8k · 151 announced
  7. + God GameFair47 devs · median $2.8k · 58 announced
  8. + Auto BattlerFair59 devs · median $2.4k · 79 announced
  9. + IdlerFair441 devs · median $2.3k · 589 announced
  10. + IncrementalFair408 devs · median $2.2k · 612 announced
  11. + ArcadeFair199 devs · median $2.1k · 285 announced
  12. + Strategy RPGFair95 devs · median $2.0k · 128 announced

All 161 pairs on the Economy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Anno 1800 older $59.99 29,854 81% 896k $54M (exactly $53,728,244) Ubisoft Mainz
Anno 117: Pax Romana $59.99 12,150 69% 365k $22M (exactly $21,866,355) Ubisoft Mainz
Avorion older $24.99 13,001 90% 390k $9.7M (exactly $9,746,850) Boxelware
The Bazaar $19.99 14,931 70% 448k $9.0M (exactly $8,954,121) Tempo
Tavern Keeper 🍻 · EA $29.99 4,563 94% 137k $4.1M (exactly $4,105,331) Greenheart Games 💚
Hollywood Animal · EA $19.99 3,845 73% 115k $2.3M (exactly $2,305,846) Weappy Wholesome
Sid Meier's Pirates! older $9.99 6,198 94% 186k $1.9M (exactly $1,857,541) Firaxis Games
STONKS-9800: Stock Market Simulator · EA older $9.99 3,124 95% 94k $936k (exactly $936,263) TERNOX
Windward older $9.99 2,668 79% 80k $800k (exactly $799,600) Tasharen Entertainment Inc.
Blood and Gold: Caribbean! older $19.99 1,188 59% 36k $712k (exactly $712,444) Snowbird Games
Celestial Empire · EA $19.99 709 89% 21k $425k (exactly $425,187) President Studio
Maid Cafe on Electric Street $18.99 595 82% 18k $339k (exactly $338,972) Adventurer's Tavern
Corner Kitchen Fast Food Simulator $13.99 411 85% 12k $172k (exactly $172,497) Purple Heads Games
Island Market Simulator $12.99 171 76% 5.1k $67k (exactly $66,639) Zentium Studio
PuPu's Adventure Park $14.99 130 64% 3.9k $58k (exactly $58,461) 西梅树工作室
Egg Squeeze $3.99 374 98% 11k $45k (exactly $44,768) MATTER GAMES

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.