Do I ship it?

GamesTransportationTransportation + Choices Matter

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Choices Matter Transportation game?

Transportation + Choices Matter

Only 17 developers shipped a Choices Matter Transportation game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, The Meter is Running, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 36 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.3k, ×2.1 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $630; 1 in 20 cleared $53k, ×85 the market median. Revenue is up 140% on the market; 36 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 140% on the market, 36 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Transportation + Choices Matter
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 17
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $22k → $11k → $1.2k → $3.2k (still earning) → $1.9k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Transportation + Choices Matter: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 17
Bottom 30% $628 (exactly $628)
Median $1.3k (exactly $1,319)
Top 25% $3.2k (exactly $3,236)
Top 5% $53k (exactly $53,130)
Developers, 2 yr 17
Released games 33
Announced 36
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 140% on the market, supply 225% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Transportation
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Choices Matter
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Transportation, Choices Matter; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Management, Simulation, Strategy
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $15.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, 3D, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $15.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 77% positive over 382 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $630, median $1.3k, 1 in 4 over $3.2k, 1 in 20 over $53k.

3 in 10 developers made under $630. 36 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Transportation with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Character CustomizationFair19 devs · median $7.2k · 24 announced
  2. + PvPFair10 devs · median $5.7k · 11 announced
  3. + 3D PlatformerFair13 devs · median $3.1k · 12 announced
  4. + RacingFair39 devs · median $2.3k · 35 announced
  5. + Action-AdventureFair21 devs · median $2.3k · 22 announced
  6. + LogicFair29 devs · median $1.7k · 30 announced
  7. + ArcadeFair37 devs · median $839 · 32 announced
  8. + IdlerFair15 devs · median $747 · 20 announced
  9. + Co-opPoor odds17 devs · median $369k · 25 announced
  10. + Online Co-OpPoor odds14 devs · median $369k · 25 announced
  11. + Level EditorPoor odds10 devs · median $43k · 17 announced
  12. + Life SimPoor odds24 devs · median $27k · 48 announced

All 53 pairs on the Transportation page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
I am an Air Traffic Controller 4 older $59.99 566 79% 17k $1.0M (exactly $1,018,630) TechnoBrain
Citystate II older $24.99 1,098 73% 33k $823k (exactly $823,171) Andy Sztark
Delivery INC older $14.99 257 71% 7.7k $116k (exactly $115,573) DIGIFOX
Pumping Simulator older $4.99 479 71% 14k $72k (exactly $71,706) Lance Games
The Meter is Running $7.00 253 77% 7.6k $53k (exactly $53,130) Debt Driven Games
Empire Builder $19.99 42 95% 1.3k $25k (exactly $25,187) Zombie Possum Games Inc
Silicon City older $19.99 40 62% 1.2k $24k (exactly $23,988) Polycorne
Jeepney Simulator older $5.99 125 90% 3.8k $22k (exactly $22,462) Spacezero Interactive
Ports Of Call Deluxe 3D 2024 older $14.99 46 78% 1.4k $21k (exactly $20,686) Dipl. Ing. Rolf-Dieter Klein
Hidden Champion · EA older $11.99 30 80% 900 $11k (exactly $10,791) infoBoard Europe GmbH
Pocket and Zooom $15.99 16 75% 480 $7.7k (exactly $7,675) TechnoBrain
European Seafreight Tycoon · EA $12.99 15 66% 450 $5.8k (exactly $5,846) Warnicke Gamedesign
Trailmarks $8.99 12 91% 360 $3.2k (exactly $3,236) Trailmarks HQ
Museum Girls Fleet Maneuvers: The Dockhand $4.99 18 94% 540 $2.7k (exactly $2,695) HitD Entertainment
Simple Airline Sim $7.99 8 0% 240 $1.9k (exactly $1,918) zedzag
Failed Game Developer $5.99 9 88% 270 $1.6k (exactly $1,617) msswkd
Real Car Parking Simulator $10.99 4 75% 120 $1.3k (exactly $1,319) FortStar
Tradewake $7.99 5 0% 150 $1.2k (exactly $1,198) Honeymelon Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.