Do I ship it?

GamesHero ShooterHero Shooter + Choices Matter

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Choices Matter Hero Shooter?

Hero Shooter + Choices Matter

Only 6 developers shipped a Choices Matter Hero Shooter in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Westwood Shadows, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 19 more are announced, ×3.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 9 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $0 in the last 2 years and $240 over 4, against a market of $1.3k for a 9 / 10 build. 5 developers shipped in the last year and 19 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.0 times the market baseline, revenue too few recent games to read momentum, 19 announced, ×3.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Hero Shooter + Choices Matter
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 6

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Hero Shooter + Choices Matter: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 6
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $0 (exactly $0)
Top 25% $120 (exactly $120)
Top 5% $11k (exactly $11,151)
Developers, 2 yr 6
Released games 31
Announced 19
Effort 9 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $11.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 400% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Hero Shooter
effort 9 / 10 · low · competitive netcode plus hero balance and content cadence
Choices Matter
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
9 / 10 · studio only
Systems
Hero Shooter, Choices Matter
Price point
$11.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $11.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 67% positive over 5,072 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $0, 1 in 4 over $120, 1 in 20 over $11k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 19 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Hero Shooter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SimulationLong shot31 devs · median $478 · 28 announced
  2. + Bullet HellLong shot59 devs · median $449 · 56 announced
  3. + Boomer ShooterLong shot30 devs · median $210 · 21 announced
  4. + MedievalLong shot10 devs · median $150 · 12 announced
  5. + Online Co-OpPoor odds20 devs · median $7.2k · 51 announced
  6. + SuperheroPoor odds6 devs · median $6.3k · 11 announced
  7. + Battle RoyalePoor odds9 devs · median $3.6k · 29 announced
  8. + Co-opPoor odds22 devs · median $3.6k · 53 announced
  9. + PvPPoor odds27 devs · median $2.3k · 127 announced
  10. + PlatformerPoor odds21 devs · median $2.2k · 33 announced
  11. + Character CustomizationPoor odds25 devs · median $2.1k · 68 announced
  12. + PhysicsPoor odds27 devs · median $1.6k · 34 announced

All 87 pairs on the Hero Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Gigantic: Rampage Edition older $19.99 3,795 65% 114k $2.3M (exactly $2,275,862) Abstraction Games
BE-A Walker older $9.99 651 72% 20k $195k (exactly $195,105) Tequilabyte Studio
Grand Pigeon's Duty older $3.99 448 76% 13k $54k (exactly $53,626) WolfgangIs
Westwood Shadows $11.99 31 67% 930 $11k (exactly $11,151) RedSoup Studio
Amazing Superhero Squad older $5.99 37 64% 1.1k $6.6k (exactly $6,649) Siberian Koala
Dice Knight: Mystery of the Moirai older $11.99 15 86% 450 $5.4k (exactly $5,396) Die of Death Games
Hijacker Jack : ARCADE FMV older $1.99 63 65% 1.9k $3.8k (exactly $3,761) New IDEA Games
Starfend older $9.99 10 90% 300 $3.0k (exactly $2,997) Ranieri Silva
NoAmmo older $3.99 18 88% 540 $2.2k (exactly $2,155) ·
Demon Blast · EA older $14.99 4 50% 120 $1.8k (exactly $1,799) Start Warp
Suds · EA $3.99 1 100% 30 $120 (exactly $120) Honeybell Games
POPOLOGIST® Camera Slinger $14.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Joe Rey, POPOLOGY® Networks
Over Shooter $4.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Chilled Out Duck Games
TD Master $14.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Martin Vaupell Christensen
Defender Zed-001 $3.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Robert E. Hull

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.