Do I ship it?

GamesTacticalTactical + Chess

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Chess Tactical game?

Tactical + Chess

Of 47 developers who shipped a Chess Tactical game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 55 more are announced.

Verdict: dead, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $270 in the last 2 years and $450 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 6 / 10 build. 34 developers shipped in the last year and 55 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 260% on the market, 55 announced, ×1.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Tactical + Chess
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 47
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.8k → $1.3k → $23k → $90 → $269 → $899 (still earning) → $201 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Tactical + Chess: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 47
Bottom 30% $60 (exactly $60)
Median $269 (exactly $269)
Top 25% $1.2k (exactly $1,199)
Top 5% $25k (exactly $25,183)
Developers, 2 yr 47
Released games 106
Announced 55
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 260% on the market, supply 145% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Tactical
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Chess
effort 1 / 10 · high · fully specified rules and known engines

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Tactical, Chess; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Board Game, Puzzle
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics, Top-Down
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 75% positive over 1,864 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $60, median $270, 1 in 4 over $1.1k, 1 in 20 over $25k.

3 in 10 developers made under $60. 9 in 10 of the 18 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 55 games are announced against 34 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Tactical with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Football (American)Strong odds12 devs · median $5.8k · 8 announced
  2. + Mystery DungeonStrong odds20 devs · median $2.5k · 15 announced
  3. + Dating SimFair13 devs · median $11k · 9 announced
  4. + 6DOFFair14 devs · median $2.4k · 19 announced
  5. + Word GameFair23 devs · median $1.8k · 12 announced
  6. + TypingFair16 devs · median $1.2k · 9 announced
  7. + DwarvesFair7 devs · median $1.0k · 10 announced
  8. + Traditional RoguelikeFair38 devs · median $987 · 57 announced
  9. + Dynamic NarrationFair13 devs · median $899 · 16 announced
  10. + Farming SimFair12 devs · median $897 · 10 announced
  11. + SolitaireFair25 devs · median $479 · 22 announced
  12. + LGBTQ+Fair20 devs · median $479 · 21 announced

All 226 pairs on the Tactical page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Frozen Synapse older $24.99 1,108 89% 33k $831k (exactly $830,668) Mode 7
Gambonanza $14.99 1,604 74% 48k $721k (exactly $721,319) Blukulélé
Fritz Chess 17 Steam Edition older $59.99 78 70% 2.3k $140k (exactly $140,377) ChessBase GmbH
Checkmate Showdown older $19.99 192 80% 5.8k $115k (exactly $115,142) BadRez Games
Dark Chess older $12.99 155 76% 4.7k $60k (exactly $60,404) Tall Troll Games
Chessaria: The Tactical Adventure (Chess) older $19.99 99 74% 3.0k $59k (exactly $59,370) Pixel Wizards
Below the Crown $14.99 64 96% 1.9k $29k (exactly $28,781) Misfits Attic
WizardChess $14.99 56 83% 1.7k $25k (exactly $25,183) TwoPM Studios
Chess Infinity $9.99 84 63% 2.5k $25k (exactly $25,175) Rockwater Games
Chess Survivors older $4.99 155 83% 4.7k $23k (exactly $23,204) Aarimous
Chesscent $7.99 14 64% 420 $3.4k (exactly $3,356) Alex did it
Black Pieces Move First $6.99 14 92% 420 $2.9k (exactly $2,936) Enchant Games
Chinese Chess - Xiangqi $7.99 8 100% 240 $1.9k (exactly $1,918) Popoko VM Games
Chessman Adventures · EA $4.99 10 100% 300 $1.5k (exactly $1,497) DVK Games
Chesscape Room · EA $11.99 4 75% 120 $1.4k (exactly $1,439) Figmenthol
Blindfold Chess $6.99 6 83% 180 $1.3k (exactly $1,258) Marmotsoft

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.