Do I ship it?

Games › Roguelike › Roguelike + Card Game

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Card Game Roguelike?

Roguelike + Card Game

Of 805 developers who shipped a Card Game Roguelike in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 1,414 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.1k, ×4.3 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $310k, ×661 the market median. Revenue is down 55% on the market; 1,414 games are announced against 528 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 55% on the market, 1,414 announced, ×2.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Roguelike + Card Game
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 805
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $9.3k → $12k → $11k → $5.6k → $6.5k → $2.8k → $1.7k (still earning) → $450 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Roguelike + Card Game: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 805
Bottom 30% $359 (exactly $359)
Median $2.1k (exactly $2,063)
Top 25% $18k (exactly $18,345)
Top 5% $314k (exactly $313,891)
Developers, 2 yr 805
Released games 1,400
Announced 1,414
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 55% on the market, supply 85% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Roguelike
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Card Game
effort 2 / 10 · high · rules engine and card data

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Roguelike, Card Game; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Deckbuilding, Roguelite
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $15.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $15.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 70% positive over 258,437 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $2.1k, 1 in 4 over $18k, 1 in 20 over $310k.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 7 in 10 of the 316 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 1,414 games are announced against 528 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Roguelike with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + JRPGFair85 devs · median $5.2k · 103 announced
  2. + 6DOFFair15 devs · median $4.7k · 7 announced
  3. + Grand StrategyFair18 devs · median $3.3k · 22 announced
  4. + VampiresFair59 devs · median $3.1k · 58 announced
  5. + DogsFair30 devs · median $1.9k · 17 announced
  6. + Artificial IntelligenceFair60 devs · median $1.8k · 85 announced
  7. + SuperheroFair12 devs · median $1.1k · 17 announced
  8. + IdlerFair160 devs · median $1.0k · 206 announced
  9. + ArcadeFair841 devs · median $959 · 1,066 announced
  10. + Walking SimulatorFair29 devs · median $718 · 28 announced
  11. + 2D PlatformerFair264 devs · median $599 · 320 announced
  12. + Traditional RoguelikeFair247 devs · median $599 · 314 announced

All 231 pairs on the Roguelike page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Slay the Spire 2019 · $144M Slay the Spire 2 2026 · EA · $138M Inscryption 2021 · $81M Balatro 2024 · $72M Loop Hero 2021 · $15M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Slay the Spire older $24.99 191,765 97% 5.8M $144M (exactly $143,766,220) Mega Crit
Slay the Spire 2 · EA $24.99 183,764 61% 5.5M $138M (exactly $137,767,871) Mega Crit
Inscryption older $19.99 135,017 96% 4.1M $81M (exactly $80,969,695) Daniel Mullins Games
Balatro older $14.99 160,715 97% 4.8M $72M (exactly $72,273,536) LocalThunk
Loop Hero older $14.99 33,816 92% 1.0M $15M (exactly $15,207,055) Four Quarters
Monster Train older $24.99 19,950 95% 599k $15M (exactly $14,956,515) Shiny Shoe
9 Kings · EA $19.99 21,352 92% 641k $13M (exactly $12,804,794) Sad Socket
UNO older $9.99 42,019 70% 1.3M $13M (exactly $12,593,094) Ubisoft Entertainment
Chrono Ark older $24.99 12,623 90% 379k $9.5M (exactly $9,463,463) Al Fine
Griftlands older $19.99 13,440 93% 403k $8.1M (exactly $8,059,968) Klei Entertainment
Monster Train 2 $24.99 8,647 95% 259k $6.5M (exactly $6,482,656) Shiny Shoe
Vampire Crawlers: The Turbo Wildcard from Vampire Survivors $9.99 18,587 96% 558k $5.6M (exactly $5,570,524) poncle, Nosebleed Interactive
Super Fantasy Kingdom · EA $19.99 5,630 86% 169k $3.4M (exactly $3,376,311) Super Fantasy Games
StarVaders $24.99 3,760 97% 113k $2.8M (exactly $2,818,872) Pengonauts
He is Coming · EA $19.99 3,834 84% 115k $2.3M (exactly $2,299,250) Chronocle
DICEOMANCER $14.99 4,749 96% 142k $2.1M (exactly $2,135,625) 超厚皮猪猪 Ultra Piggy Studio
Demonic Mahjong $16.99 3,875 95% 116k $2.0M (exactly $1,975,087) Boxed Lighting Games
RACCOIN: Coin Pusher Roguelike $11.99 4,239 82% 127k $1.5M (exactly $1,524,768) Doraccoon

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.