Do I ship it?

Games › Roguelike › Roguelike + Capitalism

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Capitalist Roguelike?

Roguelike + Capitalism

Of 72 developers who shipped a Capitalist Roguelike in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 138 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.1k, ×4.4 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $480k, ×1016 the market median. Revenue is up 80% on the market; 138 games are announced against 53 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 80% on the market, 138 announced, ×2.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Roguelike + Capitalism
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 72
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.2k → $3.3k → $12k → $50k → $1.9k → $2.6k (still earning) → $1.6k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Roguelike + Capitalism: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 72
Bottom 30% $359 (exactly $359)
Median $2.1k (exactly $2,096)
Top 25% $26k (exactly $25,793)
Top 5% $482k (exactly $482,483)
Developers, 2 yr 72
Released games 106
Announced 138
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 80% on the market, supply 150% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Roguelike
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Capitalism
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Roguelike; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Roguelite, Simulation, Management
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $12.89 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics, Relaxing
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $12.89 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 29,690 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $2.1k, 1 in 4 over $25k, 1 in 20 over $480k.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 7 in 10 of the 21 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 138 games are announced against 53 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Roguelike with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + JRPGFair85 devs · median $5.2k · 103 announced
  2. + 6DOFFair15 devs · median $4.7k · 7 announced
  3. + Grand StrategyFair18 devs · median $3.3k · 22 announced
  4. + VampiresFair59 devs · median $3.1k · 58 announced
  5. + DogsFair30 devs · median $1.9k · 17 announced
  6. + Artificial IntelligenceFair60 devs · median $1.8k · 85 announced
  7. + SuperheroFair12 devs · median $1.1k · 17 announced
  8. + IdlerFair160 devs · median $1.0k · 206 announced
  9. + ArcadeFair841 devs · median $959 · 1,066 announced
  10. + Walking SimulatorFair29 devs · median $718 · 28 announced
  11. + 2D PlatformerFair264 devs · median $599 · 320 announced
  12. + Traditional RoguelikeFair247 devs · median $599 · 314 announced

All 231 pairs on the Roguelike page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Scritchy Scratchy 2026 · $3.2M Luck be a Landlord 2023 · $3.1M Moonlighter 2: The Endless Vault 2026 · $2.8M Dungeons & Degenerate Gamblers 2024 · $1.3M Coal LLC 2025 · $604k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Scritchy Scratchy $6.99 15,245 94% 457k $3.2M (exactly $3,196,876) Lunch Money Games
Luck be a Landlord older $9.99 10,213 93% 306k $3.1M (exactly $3,060,836) TrampolineTales
Moonlighter 2: The Endless Vault $29.99 3,146 80% 94k $2.8M (exactly $2,830,456) Digital Sun
Dungeons & Degenerate Gamblers older $14.99 2,988 81% 90k $1.3M (exactly $1,343,704) Purple Moss Collectors
Coal LLC $14.99 1,343 92% 40k $604k (exactly $603,947) Bye Bye Ocean
Space Warlord Organ Trading Simulator older $19.99 827 92% 25k $496k (exactly $495,952) Strange Scaffold
Astro Prospector $4.99 3,223 91% 97k $482k (exactly $482,483) Incrementalist
Outhold $6.99 1,818 86% 55k $381k (exactly $381,235) Tellus Games
Galactic Mining Corp older $12.99 868 84% 26k $338k (exactly $338,260) Windybeard
Space Warlord Baby Trading Simulator $19.99 513 91% 15k $308k (exactly $307,646) Strange Scaffold
Insider Trading $12.89 600 79% 18k $232k (exactly $232,020) Naiive
Military Incremental Complex $9.99 692 82% 21k $207k (exactly $207,392) Space Kraken Studios
Nonentity Galaxy $9.99 587 94% 18k $176k (exactly $175,924) Brick-Up Studio
Unfair Flips $1.99 2,523 88% 76k $151k (exactly $150,623) HEATHER FLOWERS

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.