Do I ship it?

GamesDestructionDestruction + Bullet Time

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Bullet Time Destruction game?

Destruction + Bullet Time

Only 17 developers shipped a Bullet Time Destruction game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Deadliest Pigeon, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 34 more are announced, ×3.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $150 in the last 2 years and $450 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 6 / 10 build. 9 developers shipped in the last year and 34 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.2 times the market baseline, revenue down 95% on the market, 34 announced, ×3.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Destruction + Bullet Time
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 17
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $300 → $898 → $1.6k → $882 → $719 (still earning) → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Destruction + Bullet Time: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 17
Bottom 30% $60 (exactly $60)
Median $150 (exactly $150)
Top 25% $2.9k (exactly $2,866)
Top 5% $21k (exactly $20,760)
Developers, 2 yr 17
Released games 63
Announced 34
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 95% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Destruction
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Bullet Time
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Destruction, Bullet Time; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Shooter, Arcade
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Stylized
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 204 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $60, median $150, 1 in 4 over $2.8k, 1 in 20 over $20k.

3 in 10 developers made under $60. All of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 34 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Destruction with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Space SimFair14 devs · median $3.7k · 22 announced
  2. + ModernFair26 devs · median $1.6k · 28 announced
  3. + God GameFair19 devs · median $899 · 20 announced
  4. + Hidden ObjectFair9 devs · median $719 · 14 announced
  5. + Hack and SlashPoor odds19 devs · median $43k · 57 announced
  6. + HistoricalPoor odds15 devs · median $26k · 22 announced
  7. + CapitalismPoor odds17 devs · median $15k · 46 announced
  8. + Online Co-OpPoor odds37 devs · median $13k · 102 announced
  9. + Co-opPoor odds50 devs · median $11k · 113 announced
  10. + Automobile SimPoor odds22 devs · median $9.0k · 44 announced
  11. + ManagementPoor odds36 devs · median $6.1k · 129 announced
  12. + AutomationPoor odds22 devs · median $6.0k · 46 announced

All 139 pairs on the Destruction page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Trepang2 older $39.99 15,774 93% 473k $19M (exactly $18,924,068) Trepang Studios
Severed Steel older $24.99 8,880 95% 266k $6.7M (exactly $6,657,336) Greylock Studio
HARD BULLET · EA older $19.99 5,860 83% 176k $3.5M (exactly $3,514,242) GexagonVR
BRUTALISTICK VR · EA older $9.99 1,793 94% 54k $537k (exactly $537,362) Kubunautilus
Splatter - Zombiecalypse Now older $6.99 2,098 89% 63k $440k (exactly $439,951) Dreamworlds
Mr. Shifty older $14.99 855 88% 26k $384k (exactly $384,494) Team Shifty
Disassembly 3D older $29.99 309 81% 9.3k $278k (exactly $278,007) Khor Chin Heong
Disassembly VR older $29.99 157 59% 4.7k $141k (exactly $141,253) Khor Chin Heong
Destructive Physics - Destruction Simulator older $19.99 87 78% 2.6k $52k (exactly $52,174) KreizLand Games
DESTRUCTURE: Among Debris older $9.99 158 90% 4.7k $47k (exactly $47,353) Team Instant Defeat
Deadliest Pigeon $6.99 99 93% 3.0k $21k (exactly $20,760) Rusty Rex
Ragdoll Playground $9.99 13 69% 390 $3.9k (exactly $3,896) Paphnutius
Blast Rush LS $9.99 13 100% 390 $3.9k (exactly $3,896) Bipedal Dog
DOOM SPIRAL $9.99 10 100% 300 $3.0k (exactly $2,997) Forbidden Saucery
Pigeon Hater $1.99 48 95% 1.4k $2.9k (exactly $2,866) Gif2MemeGame
Periodicity - Hats and scars $4.99 11 90% 330 $1.6k (exactly $1,647) PunPun.Studio
Cosmic Waves $9.80 3 66% 90 $882 (exactly $882) Squirrel Knight
SCP: Pale Weaver $5.99 4 0% 120 $719 (exactly $719) why so serious?
Stardust Sandbox $4.99 1 100% 30 $150 (exactly $150) Starciad
The S.H.O.W. $1.99 2 100% 60 $119 (exactly $119) SGS

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.