Do I ship it?

GamesEconomyEconomy + Bullet Hell

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Bullet Hell Economy game?

Economy + Bullet Hell

Only 17 developers shipped a Bullet Hell Economy game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, DEFRAG, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 22 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $540, ×0.9 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240; 1 in 20 cleared $47k, ×76 the market median. Revenue is down 65% on the market; 22 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 65% on the market, 22 announced, ×2.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Economy + Bullet Hell
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 17
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $30 → $240 → $20k → $479 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Economy + Bullet Hell: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 17
Bottom 30% $240 (exactly $240)
Median $537 (exactly $537)
Top 25% $2.5k (exactly $2,516)
Top 5% $48k (exactly $47,900)
Developers, 2 yr 17
Released games 29
Announced 22
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 65% on the market, supply 85% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Economy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Bullet Hell
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Economy, Bullet Hell; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Action Roguelike, Arcade
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $4.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Colorful
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $4.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 853 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $240, median $540, 1 in 4 over $2.5k, 1 in 20 over $47k.

3 in 10 developers made under $240. 8 in 10 of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 22 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Economy with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorFair116 devs · median $22k · 125 announced
  2. + Football (Soccer)Fair21 devs · median $6.8k · 29 announced
  3. + ScienceFair39 devs · median $5.9k · 39 announced
  4. + MiningFair116 devs · median $5.0k · 173 announced
  5. + LootFair74 devs · median $4.6k · 114 announced
  6. + CollectathonFair125 devs · median $3.8k · 151 announced
  7. + God GameFair47 devs · median $2.8k · 58 announced
  8. + Auto BattlerFair59 devs · median $2.4k · 79 announced
  9. + IdlerFair441 devs · median $2.3k · 589 announced
  10. + IncrementalFair408 devs · median $2.2k · 612 announced
  11. + ArcadeFair199 devs · median $2.1k · 285 announced
  12. + Strategy RPGFair95 devs · median $2.0k · 128 announced

All 161 pairs on the Economy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Sea of Survivors · EA older $6.99 415 81% 12k $87k (exactly $87,026) Nah Yeah Games
DEFRAG $2.99 534 93% 16k $48k (exactly $47,900) BlueDot Studio
Mining Survivors $4.99 132 74% 4.0k $20k (exactly $19,760) Wonderbounce Games
Orb Breaker $4.99 118 61% 3.5k $18k (exactly $17,665) Aarimous and Thornity
Across the Galaxy: Stellar Dominator · EA older $9.99 18 94% 540 $5.4k (exactly $5,395) GameTrail Studio
Sidewalk Simulator · EA $3.99 22 95% 660 $2.6k (exactly $2,633) XCCWARE LLC
Shorebound · EA $6.99 12 75% 360 $2.5k (exactly $2,516) Synax, Apeworks
Radio Free Europa older $4.99 11 100% 330 $1.6k (exactly $1,647) Scott McClusky
CAPITALISM The action board game for one player older $4.99 8 75% 240 $1.2k (exactly $1,198) Dracula's Cave
Idle Shooter $5.99 5 40% 150 $898 (exactly $898) Tickle Games
Miracle Brave: Beast Defense Line $1.99 12 41% 360 $716 (exactly $716) 1029studio
Endless Tower Survivors $2.99 7 85% 210 $628 (exactly $628) Havoc Team Studio
Paint The Snow - idle $1.99 9 33% 270 $537 (exactly $537) Cookie Samurai Team
Undying Flame $7.99 2 50% 60 $479 (exactly $479) Per Sidera Industries

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.