Do I ship it?

Games › Roguelike › Roguelike + Board Game

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Board Game Roguelike?

Roguelike + Board Game

Of 179 developers who shipped a Board Game Roguelike in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 269 more are announced, ×2.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.4k, ×3.0 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $180k, ×380 the market median. Revenue is up 15% on the market; 269 games are announced against 123 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 15% on the market, 269 announced, ×2.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Roguelike + Board Game
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 179
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $9.4k → $1.9k → $3.2k → $3.3k → $3.1k → $1.4k → $2.0k (still earning) → $360 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Roguelike + Board Game: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 179
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $1.4k (exactly $1,438)
Top 25% $11k (exactly $11,334)
Top 5% $180k (exactly $180,429)
Developers, 2 yr 179
Released games 331
Announced 269
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 15% on the market, supply 120% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Roguelike
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Board Game
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Roguelike, Board Game; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Roguelite, Deckbuilding
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 12,835 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.4k, 1 in 4 over $11k, 1 in 20 over $180k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 61 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 269 games are announced against 123 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Roguelike with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + JRPGFair85 devs · median $5.2k · 103 announced
  2. + 6DOFFair15 devs · median $4.7k · 7 announced
  3. + Grand StrategyFair18 devs · median $3.3k · 22 announced
  4. + VampiresFair59 devs · median $3.1k · 58 announced
  5. + DogsFair30 devs · median $1.9k · 17 announced
  6. + Artificial IntelligenceFair60 devs · median $1.8k · 85 announced
  7. + SuperheroFair12 devs · median $1.1k · 17 announced
  8. + IdlerFair160 devs · median $1.0k · 206 announced
  9. + ArcadeFair841 devs · median $959 · 1,066 announced
  10. + Walking SimulatorFair29 devs · median $718 · 28 announced
  11. + 2D PlatformerFair264 devs · median $599 · 320 announced
  12. + Traditional RoguelikeFair247 devs · median $599 · 314 announced

All 231 pairs on the Roguelike page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

For The King 2018 · $19M UNO 2017 · $13M For The King II 2023 · $9.5M Cultist Simulator 2018 · $6.3M Hand of Fate 2015 · $4.8M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
For The King older $19.99 31,038 87% 931k $19M (exactly $18,613,489) IronOak Games
UNO older $9.99 42,019 70% 1.3M $13M (exactly $12,593,094) Ubisoft Entertainment
For The King II older $24.99 12,708 71% 381k $9.5M (exactly $9,527,188) IronOak Games
Cultist Simulator older $19.99 10,496 82% 315k $6.3M (exactly $6,294,451) Weather Factory
Hand of Fate older $19.99 8,009 89% 240k $4.8M (exactly $4,802,997) Defiant Development
Hand of Fate 2 older $29.99 5,273 84% 158k $4.7M (exactly $4,744,118) Defiant Development
Tainted Grail: Conquest older $19.99 7,589 90% 228k $4.6M (exactly $4,551,123) Questline
Depersonalization older $19.99 6,041 92% 181k $3.6M (exactly $3,622,788) MeowNature
StarVaders $24.99 3,760 97% 113k $2.8M (exactly $2,818,872) Pengonauts
Legend of Keepers: Career of a Dungeon Manager older $19.99 3,939 79% 118k $2.4M (exactly $2,362,218) Goblinz Studio
Drop Duchy $14.99 2,962 89% 89k $1.3M (exactly $1,332,011) Sleepy Mill Studio
Gambonanza $14.99 1,604 74% 48k $721k (exactly $721,319) Blukulélé
Dice A Million $12.99 1,075 90% 32k $419k (exactly $418,928) countlessnights
Inkshade $19.99 620 87% 19k $372k (exactly $371,814) Studio Vezelle
Dice With Death $13.99 779 91% 23k $327k (exactly $326,946) Sea Glass Games
Sandwalkers $19.99 490 73% 15k $294k (exactly $293,853) Goblinz Studio
Turnbound $14.99 446 78% 13k $201k (exactly $200,566) 1TK
Menherarium: Deadly Dice $8.99 669 92% 20k $180k (exactly $180,429) テスカトリポカ
Cropdeck $12.99 430 92% 13k $168k (exactly $167,571) Piotrek

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.