Do I ship it?

GamesTacticalTactical + Base Building

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Base Building Tactical game?

Tactical + Base Building

Of 198 developers who shipped a Base Building Tactical game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 425 more are announced, ×4.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.4k, ×3.8 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $540; 1 in 20 cleared $2.2M, ×3511 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 425 games are announced against 105 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.8 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 425 announced, ×4.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Tactical + Base Building
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 198
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.9k → $5.8k → $2.7k → $1.2k → $5.1k → $2.1k → $3.0k (still earning) → $1.3k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Tactical + Base Building: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 198
Bottom 30% $539 (exactly $539)
Median $2.4k (exactly $2,398)
Top 25% $26k (exactly $26,083)
Top 5% $2.2M (exactly $2,205,049)
Developers, 2 yr 198
Released games 520
Announced 425
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Tactical
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Base Building
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Tactical, Base Building; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Building, Resource Management
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 82% positive over 118,546 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $540, median $2.4k, 1 in 4 over $26k, 1 in 20 over $2.2M.

3 in 10 developers made under $540. 7 in 10 of the 106 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 425 games are announced against 105 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Tactical with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Football (American)Strong odds12 devs · median $5.8k · 8 announced
  2. + Mystery DungeonStrong odds20 devs · median $2.5k · 15 announced
  3. + Dating SimFair13 devs · median $11k · 9 announced
  4. + 6DOFFair14 devs · median $2.4k · 19 announced
  5. + Word GameFair23 devs · median $1.8k · 12 announced
  6. + TypingFair16 devs · median $1.2k · 9 announced
  7. + DwarvesFair7 devs · median $1.0k · 10 announced
  8. + Traditional RoguelikeFair38 devs · median $987 · 57 announced
  9. + Dynamic NarrationFair13 devs · median $899 · 16 announced
  10. + Farming SimFair12 devs · median $897 · 10 announced
  11. + SolitaireFair25 devs · median $479 · 22 announced
  12. + LGBTQ+Fair20 devs · median $479 · 21 announced

All 226 pairs on the Tactical page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Squad older $39.99 180,505 82% 5.4M $217M (exactly $216,551,848) Offworld
Age of Empires II: Definitive Edition older $34.99 158,931 94% 4.8M $167M (exactly $166,829,871) World's Edge, Forgotten Empires, Captur… (World's Edge, Forgotten Empires, CaptureAge, Tantalus Media, Wicked Witch, Feral Interactive)
WARDOGS · EA $39.99 58,250 81% 1.7M $70M (exactly $69,882,525) BULKHEAD
Northgard: Definitive Edition older $34.99 54,478 85% 1.6M $57M (exactly $57,185,557) Shiro Games
Age of Empires II (Retired) older $19.99 84,818 95% 2.5M $51M (exactly $50,865,355) Skybox Labs, Hidden Path Entertainment,… (Skybox Labs, Hidden Path Entertainment, Ensemble Studios, Forgotten Empires)
Foxhole older $29.99 47,330 79% 1.4M $43M (exactly $42,582,801) Siege Camp
They Are Billions older $29.99 46,223 85% 1.4M $42M (exactly $41,586,833) Numantian Games
Company of Heroes 2 older $19.99 68,909 80% 2.1M $41M (exactly $41,324,727) Relic Entertainment, Feral Interactive… (Relic Entertainment, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux))
XCOM: Enemy Unknown older $14.99 40,345 93% 1.2M $18M (exactly $18,143,146) Firaxis Games, Feral Interactive (Linux)
Warhammer 40,000: Dawn of War III older $39.99 14,436 50% 433k $17M (exactly $17,318,869) Relic Entertainment, Feral Interactive… (Relic Entertainment, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux))
Warhammer 40,000: Dawn of War - Definitive Edition $29.99 12,286 85% 369k $11M (exactly $11,053,714) Relic Entertainment
Diplomacy is Not an Option $29.99 10,904 85% 327k $9.8M (exactly $9,810,329) Door 407
Age of Darkness: Final Stand $27.99 9,486 74% 285k $8.0M (exactly $7,965,394) PlaySide
The King is Watching $14.99 9,006 88% 270k $4.0M (exactly $4,049,998) Hypnohead
Becastled $19.99 5,349 81% 160k $3.2M (exactly $3,207,795) Mana Potion Studios
Tower Dominion $17.49 5,117 85% 154k $2.7M (exactly $2,684,890) Parallel 45 Games
NORSE: Oath of Blood $34.99 2,535 56% 76k $2.7M (exactly $2,660,990) Arctic Hazard
Emberward $19.99 3,775 96% 113k $2.3M (exactly $2,263,868) Refic Games
ZEPHON $39.99 1,838 83% 55k $2.2M (exactly $2,205,049) Proxy Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.