Do I ship it?

GamesDestructionDestruction + Base Building

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Base Building Destruction game?

Destruction + Base Building

Of 32 developers who shipped a Base Building Destruction game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 98 more are announced, ×5.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.6k, ×4.2 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $420; 1 in 20 cleared $16M, ×25841 the market median. Revenue is up 215% on the market; 98 games are announced against 18 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.2 times the market baseline, revenue up 215% on the market, 98 announced, ×5.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Destruction + Base Building
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 32
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $865k → $2.7k → $5.6k → $9.0k → $43k → $55k (still earning) → $420 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Destruction + Base Building: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 32
Bottom 30% $420 (exactly $420)
Median $2.6k (exactly $2,637)
Top 25% $222k (exactly $221,911)
Top 5% $16M (exactly $16,228,342)
Developers, 2 yr 32
Released games 85
Announced 98
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $13.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 215% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Destruction
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Base Building
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Destruction, Base Building; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Building, Action, Combat
Price point
$13.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $13.99.

The top 10 games average 80% positive over 77,267 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $420, median $2.6k, 1 in 4 over $220k, 1 in 20 over $16M.

3 in 10 developers made under $420. 7 in 10 of the 15 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 98 games are announced against 18 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Destruction with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Space SimFair14 devs · median $3.7k · 22 announced
  2. + ModernFair26 devs · median $1.6k · 28 announced
  3. + God GameFair19 devs · median $899 · 20 announced
  4. + Hidden ObjectFair9 devs · median $719 · 14 announced
  5. + Hack and SlashPoor odds19 devs · median $43k · 57 announced
  6. + HistoricalPoor odds15 devs · median $26k · 22 announced
  7. + CapitalismPoor odds17 devs · median $15k · 46 announced
  8. + Online Co-OpPoor odds37 devs · median $13k · 102 announced
  9. + Co-opPoor odds50 devs · median $11k · 113 announced
  10. + Automobile SimPoor odds22 devs · median $9.0k · 44 announced
  11. + ManagementPoor odds36 devs · median $6.1k · 129 announced
  12. + AutomationPoor odds22 devs · median $6.0k · 46 announced

All 139 pairs on the Destruction page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
WARDOGS · EA $39.99 58,250 81% 1.7M $70M (exactly $69,882,525) BULKHEAD
RoadCraft $39.99 13,527 74% 406k $16M (exactly $16,228,342) Saber Interactive
Gas Station Simulator older $19.99 23,839 88% 715k $14M (exactly $14,296,248) DRAGO entertainment
Planetary Annihilation: TITANS older $29.99 11,401 84% 342k $10M (exactly $10,257,480) Planetary Annihilation Inc
Stranded: Alien Dawn older $34.99 9,715 84% 291k $10M (exactly $10,197,836) Haemimont Games
Forts older $14.99 21,216 92% 636k $9.5M (exactly $9,540,835) EarthWork Games
Severed Steel older $24.99 8,880 95% 266k $6.7M (exactly $6,657,336) Greylock Studio
DYSMANTLE older $19.99 11,022 91% 331k $6.6M (exactly $6,609,893) 10tons Ltd
Taur older $24.99 2,011 79% 60k $1.5M (exactly $1,507,647) Echo Entertainment
Ruinarch older $24.99 1,336 62% 40k $1.0M (exactly $1,001,599) Maccima Games LLC
The Scouring · EA $24.99 1,136 88% 34k $852k (exactly $851,659) Orc Group
Vietnam War · EA $14.99 1,704 84% 51k $766k (exactly $766,289) Thorium Game Lab
Lay of the Land $19.99 1,190 79% 36k $714k (exactly $713,643) Southern Cross Interactive
Annihilate The Spance · EA $29.99 347 90% 10k $312k (exactly $312,196) Skyglow Softworks
Castle Craft $19.99 480 82% 14k $288k (exactly $287,856) Twin Earth
DYSPLACED · EA $24.99 296 87% 8.9k $222k (exactly $221,911) 10tons Ltd
Dawn Apart · EA $19.99 245 68% 7.4k $147k (exactly $146,926) Industrial Technology and Witchcraft
Territory Control 2 · EA $19.99 92 77% 2.8k $55k (exactly $55,172) TFlippy, Knorrepot

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.