Do I ship it?

GamesAutomationAutomation + Mystery

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Mystery Automation game?

Automation + Mystery

Only 17 developers shipped a Mystery Automation game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Techtonica, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 41 more are announced, ×3.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $720, ×1.1 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150; 1 in 20 cleared $2.7M, ×4407 the market median. Revenue is down 15% on the market; 41 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.1 times the market baseline, revenue down 15% on the market, 41 announced, ×3.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Automation + Mystery
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 17
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $19k → $3.1k → $1.9k (still earning) → $719 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Automation + Mystery: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 17
Bottom 30% $148 (exactly $148)
Median $719 (exactly $719)
Top 25% $4.2k (exactly $4,196)
Top 5% $2.8M (exactly $2,767,477)
Developers, 2 yr 17
Released games 30
Announced 41
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 15% on the market, supply 225% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Automation
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Mystery
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Automation; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Building, Economy, Idler
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Colorful, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 65% positive over 3,318 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $720, 1 in 4 over $4.1k, 1 in 20 over $2.7M.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 8 in 10 of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 41 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Automation with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds36 devs · median $57k · 31 announced
  2. + Female ProtagonistStrong odds27 devs · median $4.5k · 32 announced
  3. + Open World Survival CraftFair28 devs · median $307k · 37 announced
  4. + HorrorFair19 devs · median $8.0k · 29 announced
  5. + HistoricalFair26 devs · median $7.9k · 24 announced
  6. + UndergroundFair20 devs · median $7.4k · 32 announced
  7. + Class-BasedFair19 devs · median $6.6k · 22 announced
  8. + MiningFair105 devs · median $4.9k · 164 announced
  9. + Auto BattlerFair112 devs · median $4.5k · 153 announced
  10. + ProgrammingFair84 devs · median $3.8k · 102 announced
  11. + FishingFair40 devs · median $3.4k · 46 announced
  12. + Turn-Based TacticsFair28 devs · median $2.9k · 36 announced

All 135 pairs on the Automation page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Techtonica $29.99 3,076 64% 92k $2.8M (exactly $2,767,477) Fire Hose Games
Tunnet older $5.99 699 94% 21k $126k (exactly $125,610) puzzled_squid
Penkura · EA older $13.99 188 89% 5.6k $79k (exactly $78,904) LionsArt
Beyond the Doors · EA $8.99 75 72% 2.3k $20k (exactly $20,228) Dream Error
Time Bandit – Part 1: Appendages of the Machine older $9.99 64 93% 1.9k $19k (exactly $19,181) Joel Jordon
Terraforming Titans $5.00 58 94% 1.7k $8.7k (exactly $8,700) terraforming.titans
Kibble Cats $4.99 38 89% 1.1k $5.7k (exactly $5,689) Vozmog
Star Haul Tycoon $9.99 14 78% 420 $4.2k (exactly $4,196) sugames
MyLittlePool older $5.99 17 17% 510 $3.1k (exactly $3,055) SuperLoki
Pathways & Poltergeists $9.99 10 100% 300 $3.0k (exactly $2,997) Wise Goose Games
Flufftopia: Fluffmazing Edition by Daniel da Silva $4.99 13 92% 390 $1.9k (exactly $1,946) Daniel da Silva
Channel Surfing $1.99 25 84% 750 $1.5k (exactly $1,492) Happy Distractions Studio
CQ: Calling Any Station $5.99 4 100% 120 $719 (exactly $719) Arkkis
Small Test $1.99 5 80% 150 $298 (exactly $298) UAIGolem

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.