Do I ship it?

GamesAutomationAutomation + Crime

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Crime Automation game?

Automation + Crime

Only 16 developers shipped a Crime Automation game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Schedule I, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 41 more are announced, ×3.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $33k, ×52 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $760; 1 in 20 cleared $170M, ×275918 the market median. Revenue is down 100% on the market; 41 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 52.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 100% on the market, 41 announced, ×3.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Automation + Crime
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 16
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.4M → $33k (still earning) → $3.8k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Automation + Crime: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 16
Bottom 30% $756 (exactly $756)
Median $33k (exactly $32,967)
Top 25% $219k (exactly $219,334)
Top 5% $173M (exactly $173,276,718)
Developers, 2 yr 16
Released games 26
Announced 41
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $12.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 100% on the market, supply 200% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Automation
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Crime
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Automation; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Management, Simulation, Action
Price point
$12.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
all of the top 25% ship with First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $12.99.

The top 10 games average 97% positive over 298,023 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $760, median $33k, 1 in 4 over $210k, 1 in 20 over $170M.

3 in 10 developers made under $760. 41 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Automation with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds36 devs · median $57k · 31 announced
  2. + Female ProtagonistStrong odds27 devs · median $4.5k · 32 announced
  3. + Open World Survival CraftFair28 devs · median $307k · 37 announced
  4. + HorrorFair19 devs · median $8.0k · 29 announced
  5. + HistoricalFair26 devs · median $7.9k · 24 announced
  6. + UndergroundFair20 devs · median $7.4k · 32 announced
  7. + Class-BasedFair19 devs · median $6.6k · 22 announced
  8. + MiningFair105 devs · median $4.9k · 164 announced
  9. + Auto BattlerFair112 devs · median $4.5k · 153 announced
  10. + ProgrammingFair84 devs · median $3.8k · 102 announced
  11. + FishingFair40 devs · median $3.4k · 46 announced
  12. + Turn-Based TacticsFair28 devs · median $2.9k · 36 announced

All 135 pairs on the Automation page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Schedule I · EA $19.99 288,939 97% 8.7M $173M (exactly $173,276,718) TVGS
Cash Cleaner Simulator $19.99 7,334 92% 220k $4.4M (exactly $4,398,200) Mind Control Games
Dirty Business · EA $14.99 906 75% 27k $407k (exactly $407,428) Plan Dirty Games
The Boss Gangster: Criminal Empire · EA $18.99 385 81% 12k $219k (exactly $219,334) BEF GAMES
Moonshine Inc. older $19.99 177 61% 5.3k $106k (exactly $106,147) Klabater
Scam Center Simulator: UnderKingdom · EA $10.99 168 75% 5.0k $55k (exactly $55,390) Jiao Games
My Drug Cartel · EA $24.99 48 50% 1.4k $36k (exactly $35,986) Gigicom
Toll Booth Simulator $12.99 91 71% 2.7k $35k (exactly $35,463) SifDev
The Brewline $9.99 110 84% 3.3k $33k (exactly $32,967) Alcora Games
Cocaine Dealer · EA older $3.99 109 80% 3.3k $13k (exactly $13,047) Stone/Spark Games
Schedule Store Simulator · EA $14.99 28 92% 840 $13k (exactly $12,592) Alkame Games
Mafia Life Simulator · EA $8.99 14 64% 420 $3.8k (exactly $3,776) CSN Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.