Do I ship it?

GamesAutomationAutomation + Base Building

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Base Building Automation game?

Automation + Base Building

Of 251 developers who shipped a Base Building Automation game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 540 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $11k, ×18 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.1k; 1 in 20 cleared $3.2M, ×5143 the market median. Revenue is down 45% on the market; 540 games are announced against 175 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 18.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 45% on the market, 540 announced, ×3.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Automation + Base Building
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 251
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.3k → $35k → $24k → $30k → $23k → $18k → $17k (still earning) → $3.6k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Automation + Base Building: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 251
Bottom 30% $2.1k (exactly $2,096)
Median $11k (exactly $11,301)
Top 25% $147k (exactly $146,926)
Top 5% $3.2M (exactly $3,229,708)
Developers, 2 yr 251
Released games 487
Announced 540
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $11.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 45% on the market, supply 115% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Automation
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Base Building
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Automation, Base Building; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Building, Resource Management
Price point
$11.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $11.99.

The top 10 games average 94% positive over 842,903 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $2.1k, median $11k, 1 in 4 over $140k, 1 in 20 over $3.2M.

3 in 10 developers made under $2.1k. 6 in 10 of the 91 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 540 games are announced against 175 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Automation with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds36 devs · median $57k · 31 announced
  2. + Female ProtagonistStrong odds27 devs · median $4.5k · 32 announced
  3. + Open World Survival CraftFair28 devs · median $307k · 37 announced
  4. + HorrorFair19 devs · median $8.0k · 29 announced
  5. + HistoricalFair26 devs · median $7.9k · 24 announced
  6. + UndergroundFair20 devs · median $7.4k · 32 announced
  7. + Class-BasedFair19 devs · median $6.6k · 22 announced
  8. + MiningFair105 devs · median $4.9k · 164 announced
  9. + Auto BattlerFair112 devs · median $4.5k · 153 announced
  10. + ProgrammingFair84 devs · median $3.8k · 102 announced
  11. + FishingFair40 devs · median $3.4k · 46 announced
  12. + Turn-Based TacticsFair28 devs · median $2.9k · 36 announced

All 135 pairs on the Automation page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Palworld $29.99 411,947 94% 12M $371M (exactly $370,628,716) Pocketpair
Satisfactory older $39.99 234,993 97% 7.0M $282M (exactly $281,921,102) Coffee Stain Studios
Factorio older $35.00 191,814 97% 5.8M $201M (exactly $201,404,700) Wube Software LTD.
Schedule I · EA $19.99 288,939 97% 8.7M $173M (exactly $173,276,718) TVGS
ASTRONEER older $29.99 118,844 91% 3.6M $107M (exactly $106,923,947) System Era Softworks
Dyson Sphere Program · EA older $19.99 83,523 97% 2.5M $50M (exactly $50,088,743) Youthcat Studio
The Planet Crafter older $23.99 68,855 96% 2.1M $50M (exactly $49,554,944) Miju Games
Stormworks: Build and Rescue older $24.99 54,649 90% 1.6M $41M (exactly $40,970,355) Geometa
Timberborn $34.99 38,529 95% 1.2M $40M (exactly $40,443,891) Mechanistry
Soulmask $29.99 18,445 76% 553k $17M (exactly $16,594,966) CampFire Studio
RoadCraft $39.99 13,527 74% 406k $16M (exactly $16,228,342) Saber Interactive
The Last Caretaker · EA $34.99 13,178 86% 395k $14M (exactly $13,832,947) Channel37 Ltd
shapez 2 - Factory $29.99 13,846 96% 415k $12M (exactly $12,457,246) tobspr Games
Necesse $14.99 24,425 93% 733k $11M (exactly $10,983,922) Fair Games ApS
StarRupture · EA $19.99 12,333 80% 370k $7.4M (exactly $7,396,100) Creepy Jar
The Wandering Village $29.99 7,734 91% 232k $7.0M (exactly $6,958,280) Stray Fawn Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.