Do I ship it?

GamesRoguelikeRoguelike + Assassins

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Assassin Roguelike?

Roguelike + Assassins

Only 10 developers shipped an Assassin Roguelike in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, DISORDER, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 10 more are announced.

Verdict: dead, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $450 in the last 2 years and $450 over 4, against a market of $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build. 6 developers shipped in the last year and 10 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 80% on the market, 10 announced, ×1.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Roguelike + Assassins
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 10
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $60 → $3.2k → $1.4k → $179 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Roguelike + Assassins: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 10
Bottom 30% $179 (exactly $179)
Median $449 (exactly $449)
Top 25% $1.4k (exactly $1,438)
Top 5% $111k (exactly $110,663)
Developers, 2 yr 10
Released games 25
Announced 10
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 80% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Roguelike
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Assassins
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Roguelike
Price point
$4.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 8 games average 56% positive over 154 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $450, 1 in 4 over $1.4k, 1 in 20 over $110k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 10 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Roguelike with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + JRPGFair85 devs · median $5.2k · 103 announced
  2. + 6DOFFair15 devs · median $4.7k · 7 announced
  3. + Grand StrategyFair18 devs · median $3.3k · 22 announced
  4. + VampiresFair59 devs · median $3.1k · 58 announced
  5. + DogsFair30 devs · median $1.9k · 17 announced
  6. + Artificial IntelligenceFair60 devs · median $1.8k · 85 announced
  7. + SuperheroFair12 devs · median $1.1k · 17 announced
  8. + IdlerFair160 devs · median $1.0k · 206 announced
  9. + ArcadeFair841 devs · median $959 · 1,066 announced
  10. + Walking SimulatorFair29 devs · median $718 · 28 announced
  11. + 2D PlatformerFair264 devs · median $599 · 320 announced
  12. + Traditional RoguelikeFair247 devs · median $599 · 314 announced

All 231 pairs on the Roguelike page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Godlike Burger older $19.99 796 75% 24k $477k (exactly $477,361) Liquid Pug
DISORDER $29.99 123 50% 3.7k $111k (exactly $110,663) GRUMPY
Quest of Dungeons older $4.99 478 78% 14k $72k (exactly $71,557) David Amador
Kate: Collateral Damage older $7.99 82 92% 2.5k $20k (exactly $19,655) Ludic Studios
Dice Assassin older $2.99 76 69% 2.3k $6.8k (exactly $6,817) Afil Games
ZOMBIE NTR APOCALYPSE $10.99 13 69% 390 $4.3k (exactly $4,286) RaigenGames
Band of Brigands older $11.99 9 88% 270 $3.2k (exactly $3,237) ProtoGames
Samurai's Odyssey · EA $7.99 6 66% 180 $1.4k (exactly $1,438) CODEUM GAMES, 11Gen
Power Champions older $2.99 10 90% 300 $897 (exactly $897) Gustavo Carvalho
Last Shinobi $8.99 3 100% 90 $809 (exactly $809) Dark Tomato Studio
Shadowlight $4.99 3 100% 90 $449 (exactly $449) Unangwata
75 Demons $3.99 3 100% 90 $359 (exactly $359) Noknadiv
DeadEye: A Roguelike Shooter · EA $2.99 2 100% 60 $179 (exactly $179) AliceCatto
NOIRCOTICS $2.99 1 100% 30 $90 (exactly $90) NOIR
Speed Tactic Ninja $4.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Helmi Blub
Moonlight Duels $2.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Ghostghotiii

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.